Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.AVIATION...
STORMS WILL BE GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO WACO IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THIS
CLUSTER HAS NOT BEEN SEVERE AS OF LATE BUT STILL CARRY A WIND AND
SMALL HAIL THREAT. LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY A BREAK AND
THEN ANOTHER ROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING FROPA TIME...BUT IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL OCCUR AFTER THIS TAF VALID TIME (06Z THU). SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/

UPDATE...

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED AND A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
AFFECT FOR AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE
UNTIL 400 AM.

HAVE ADJUSTED/UPDATED POPS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. WE FEEL THIS AREA IS NOW THE
BEST AREA (SOUTHERN CWA) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...AND LOTS
OF IT.  SPC HAS DROPPED THE MODERATE RISK AND IS CARRYING A SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH 12Z/0700 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS NORTH OF THE WATCH BOX COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL.  LARGE
HAIL IS MOST LIKELY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...THEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE SUPERCELLS FORM IN A WIND
BACKED ENVIRONMENT.  75

AVIATION...
547 PM CDT.
MESSY AVIATION SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN
PLACE. WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRYLINE TO THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. STRONG STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS
MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER ACTIVITY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT THIS TIME.

BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP/THUNDER WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH ONCE MORE...BUT WILL JUST INCLUDE
CB FOR NOW AFTER 21Z WED UNTIL TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW HOURS OF
BKN-OVC VFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRECIP ROUNDS. CURRENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE AND THEN ENE OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING
BACK AROUND TO THE SE.  SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SUN IN WESTERN ZONES DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME. 18Z
SOUNDING SHOWS CAP ERODING...ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF CAP COOLING
OCCURRED BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. EXPECT NEW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO BREAK OUT WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOTION VECTORS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. DRY LINE HAS MADE IT EAST OF SWEETWATER
AND IT SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO ABILENE. IT SHOULD PROGRESS A BIT
FARTHER EAST AND THEN RETREAT WESTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD
FRONT ALSO CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND HAS MOVED PAST ALTUS HEADING
FOR WICHITA FALLS. EXPECT IT TO STALL NEAR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

MODELS FORECAST A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT SO PERIODS OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR.
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...AS FRONT
WILL NOT MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS UNTIL SURFACE LOW CAN
RIDE UP FRONT INTO ARKANSAS AND ALLOW THE FRONT TO PROGRESS.
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO DIMINISH
AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AGAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTH TEXAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. GFS DOES BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT
HAVE SEEN GFS PROGRESS FRONTS TOO QUICKLY SO OFTEN THAT I TEND TO
BELIEVE THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  83  63  75 /  70  60  50  10
WACO, TX              68  86  65  78 /  90  50  40  30
PARIS, TX             68  80  64  74 /  50  60  60  10
DENTON, TX            66  81  61  75 /  50  60  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  82  62  75 /  70  60  50  10
DALLAS, TX            67  83  64  76 /  70  60  50  10
TERRELL, TX           68  83  66  76 /  90  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         69  85  68  77 /  90  60  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            70  87  68  81 /  90  50  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

75/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
903 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
903 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT...SPECIFICALLY THAT AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO
PARIS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A THUNDERSTORM OR A SERIES OF STORMS
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT ANYTIME TONIGHT.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1108 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TXZ105>107-140445-
DELTA TX-HUNT TX-HOPKINS TX-
1108 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HUNT COUNTY
  DELTA COUNTY
  HOPKINS COUNTY

AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL HUNT COUNTY INTO
HOPKINS AND DELTA COUNTIES. PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...CAMPBELL...
COMMERCE...COMO...COOPER...CUMBY...GREENVILLE...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK AND COOPER LAKE PARK SOUTH SULPHUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3304 9629 3317 9628 3349 9563 3345 9553
      3344 9543 3337 9528 3297 9529 3298 9593
      3295 9595 3294 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 180DEG 0KT 3287 9645

85/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TXZ142-156-140445-
MILLS TX-LAMPASAS TX-
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LAMPASAS COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 1110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF EARLY TO 5 MILES EAST OF BUCHANAN DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE...LAMPASAS AND
MULLIN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LAT...LON 3110 9848 3129 9863 3130 9861 3131 9864
      3155 9882 3173 9852 3172 9850 3145 9828
      3143 9823 3106 9791 3102 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 232DEG 18KT 3156 9863 3083 9833

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TXZ158-140515-
BELL TX-
1149 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL BELL COUNTY

AT 1149 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF BELTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 24
MPH. PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS STORM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELTON...MORGANS POINT
RESORT...NOLANVILLE...TEMPLE AND TROY.

ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG STORMS IS LOCATED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BELL
COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3107 9761 3129 9750 3133 9741 3126 9735
      3128 9728 3126 9726 3125 9725 3100 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 206DEG 21KT 3112 9747

85/NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             3 NNE EDOM              32.41N  95.59W
05/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       VAN ZANDT          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KILLEEN                 31.10N  97.72W
05/14/2008                   BELL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWERLINES DOWN IN KILLEEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ160-140630-
FALLS TX-
105 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN FALLS COUNTY

AT 105 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF ROBINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
46 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLINDA AND MARLIN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3133 9719 3134 9717 3136 9714 3137 9710
      3153 9681 3147 9676 3144 9674 3139 9670
      3119 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 230DEG 40KT 3135 9705

85/NH