Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.AVIATION UPDATE...
DRYLINE JUST WEST OF KDFW AND WILL BEGIN TAF WITH WEST WIND AS THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THRU DFW PRIOR TO 00Z. SECONDARY WINDSHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WILL AFFECT METROPLEX TAFS AROUND 02Z BASED ON
BOUNDARY EXTRAPOLATION FROM RADAR TRENDS. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS ENDED AT ALL BUT KACT...BUT PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW AND HAVE
LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF KACT TAF.  WILL MONITOR SHORT-TERM
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE TAF UPDATE. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KACT WILL
END BY AROUND 04Z AS DRYLINE/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.  07/BB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
251 PM CDT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DRY LINE NOW ENTERING THE
WESTERN ZONES. 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CAP...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...CIN WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE ZONES WHERE
DYNAMIC FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE WILL BE CLOSER. RUC FORECASTS WERE
USED FOR POSITIONING OF THE DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TIME OF INITIATION...ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ARLINGTON TO
HILLSBORO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE
HAS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EXTREME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60-70 KT. OBVIOUSLY VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK
LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HIGH INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE AND ALLOW FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF INTO
EAST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S BY SUNRISE...WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COOL NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GENERALLY NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF AND SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A DRY LINE INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND
STORMS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER TEXAS. COPIOUS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MEANS SOME WIDESPREAD/HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A DEEP TROUGH TRANSPORTING CANADIAN
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...BUT IT IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  76  52  82  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              58  78  49  82  69 /  20   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             52  73  49  81  64 /  40   0   0   0  10
DENTON, TX            53  76  47  82  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          53  75  46  81  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
DALLAS, TX            56  76  53  82  70 /  10   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           56  76  50  83  67 /  20   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         58  76  52  82  68 /  30   0   0   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            59  78  52  83  70 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO THE EAST OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO ARLINGTON...TO HILLSBORO...TO LAMPASAS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND TO THE EAST A DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY UNSTABLE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BECOME SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO ARLINGTON...TO
HILLSBORO...TO LAMPASAS.

92/13

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