Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH TEXAS ALONG WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IS LAGGING BEHIND ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW WELL DEFINED AND IS
CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS. MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN
IS THE DRYLINE WHICH HAS ALREADY SURGED THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. A FEW ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ALONG THE
DRYLINE...INDICATING THE EROSION OF THE CAP. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM MINERAL WELLS...TO DALLAS...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
WATCH BOX.

AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST...AREAS TO THE WEST OF IT WILL SEE A
DRAMATIC DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AS
IT MOVES THROUGH IN A FEW HOURS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER BY 7 PM.

ANOTHER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE WITH A
FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ARE
STILL FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MET GUIDANCE IS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV. THE LATEST GFS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY IS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND ALSO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH THE
OTHER MODELS DONT HAVE. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS FAR AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE NOT
GONE ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN WITH SYSTEMS SUCH A SHORT DISTANCE APART.  SH/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  85  65  87  68 /   5   0   0  10  10
WACO, TX              60  88  64  87  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  80  60  84  62 /  40   0  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            59  84  62  86  64 /   5   0   0  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  83  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
DALLAS, TX            63  85  67  89  70 /   5   0   0  10  10
TERRELL, TX           61  83  64  87  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         62  83  65  87  67 /  10   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  86  65  92  68 /   5   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EAST
OF A BONHAM...KAUFMAN...TO PALESTINE LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS.

A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE RED RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH 6
PM AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

79

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