Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ZONES WILL BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY AS CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE RECONFIGURED FROM THE SPC WITHIN THE HOUR.

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING
AND CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON RADAR JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WHERE PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY
THEN SHOW THINGS TAPERING OFF. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AROUND FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY THEN THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
BY THIS EVENING.

UPPER S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL DEPART THE
AREA TODAY...BUT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEXT SHOT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A S/W SWINGS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT FORCING
ALONG DRYLINE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. BETTER RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK...ON WED/THU WHEN WESTERN US FLOW
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND A DEEPER TROF DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOTS
AT THUNDERSTORMS BY WED AFTN AND THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  45  72  52  77 /  50   5   0   5   5
WACO, TX              67  46  75  53  79 /  80   5   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             59  42  69  49  73 /  70   5   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            63  43  71  51  75 /  40   5   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          63  43  71  51  75 /  50   5   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            64  46  72  53  77 /  60   5   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           64  45  70  52  77 /  70   5   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  45  72  52  78 /  90   5   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  47  76  52  80 /  80   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DUNN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH
TEXAS BEFORE MIDDAY FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO TEMPLE LINE.
OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

TXZ142-156-040915-
MILLS TX-LAMPASAS TX-
351 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LAMPASAS COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 351 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES EAST OF SAN SABA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
34 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE...LAMPASAS AND
MULLIN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3114 9855 3124 9858 3126 9862 3130 9861
      3135 9867 3135 9872 3141 9873 3138 9877
      3148 9900 3160 9881 3170 9874 3173 9851
      3106 9792 3104 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 243DEG 30KT 3122 9842

77/TLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

TXZ122-040930-
VAN ZANDT TX-
355 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 355 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
GUSTY WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MINEOLA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CANTON...EDOM...
FRUITVALE...GRAND SALINE AND VAN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9608 3253 9607 3277 9577 3272 9564
      3269 9560 3255 9557 3249 9558 3245 9555
      3237 9553 3237 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0855Z 270DEG 30KT 3280 9559 3245 9592

77/TLD

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