River Flood Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.NEAR TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MANY UPDATES ALREADY SENT JUST PREVIOUS TO THIS DISCUSSION. BOTH SVR
WATCH #57 THRU 7 PM/TOR WATCH #58 THRU 9 PM ARE IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
2/3 AND ERN 1/3 OF N TX RESPECTIVELY.

BOUNDARY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER ERN COUNTIES FROM ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM-TERRELL-CORSICANA-MEXIA-HEARNE LINE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW NOW NEAR MIDLAND MOVING ENE. MAIN
THREATS WEST OF THE STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/
LIGHTNING AS FRONTAL INVERSION WILL KEEPS WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SFC.
HOWEVER...IN SLIVER OF WARM/MOIST SECTOR (TEMPS 60S/DEW PTS 60)...MIXING
WINDS AND MESOCYCLONES (FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL) TO THE SFC WILL BE EASIER
TO ACHIEVE. BY DARK...ADVANCING 850 MB FRONT WILL OVERTAKE STORMS NEAR
THE SFC FOR MORE OF A LINEAR SQUALL LINE E OF I-35 THROUGH MID EVENING
OR SO.

UPPER LOW TO MOVE UP TOWARD LUBBOCK/CHILDRESS AREAS BY SUNSET...BEFORE
WRAPPING UP AND NEGATIVELY TILTING NEWD QUICK OVER ERN KS/MO OZARKS
BY DAYBREAK SUN. THUS RAIN CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/AFTER WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH JUST LINGER LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE RED RIVER AND BRISK W/NWLY WINDS HEADING INTO SUNDAY.

A SLOW MODIFICATION TREND SUN-TUES ON TEMPS AS NW FLOW ALOFT IN LIEU
OF EXITING UPPER LOW KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH SOME PERIODIC SUNSHINE. S/SW
WINDS WILL CRANK UP LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUES...ALLOWING FOR THE WARM
UP EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUES NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND/...
WARM AND BREEZY SLY FLOW TO KEEP THINGS WARM TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT...AS A MORE NRN STREAM BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER NWD THAN THIS PAST
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURS. N TX WILL BE IN SOMEWHAT OF A
SPLIT(CONFLUENT) MID LEVEL REGIME...WITH A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRING
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE SE 1/2 OF N TX THURS/FRI...
AS WEAK FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EXITS CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRI NIGHT/SAT...SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL TRENDS
ON TEMPS WITH ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN 1/2
OF N TX LATER NEXT WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  59  35  58  39 /  50   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              39  62  36  60  37 /  50   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             41  52  33  55  34 / 100  20  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            38  56  31  57  38 /  60   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          39  55  31  56  37 /  80  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            42  57  37  57  39 /  60   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           41  57  33  58  36 /  90   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         41  58  35  59  36 /  80   5   5   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            40  67  38  62  39 /  40   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
300 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THROUGH
MID-EVENING...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM ROCKDALE...TO TERRELL...AND EMORY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS IN THIS
AREA.

ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF I-35 THIS EVENING...COMING TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
REQUESTS FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST ACTIVATIONS WILL BE EAST OF I-35.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TXZ147-161-162100-
FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-
230 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY
  EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 230 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GROESBECK...MEXIA...WORTHAM
AND FORT PARKER STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3126 9662 3130 9663 3132 9666 3138 9670
      3181 9657 3175 9623 3129 9647 3125 9656
      3123 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 196DEG 51KT 3126 9662

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
233 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TXZ095-106-162100-
LAMAR TX-DELTA TX-
233 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL DELTA COUNTY
  CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY

AT 233 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMMERCE...MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PARIS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3341 9577 3395 9560 3393 9554 3392 9554
      3390 9550 3390 9546 3389 9545 3389 9535
      3336 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 197DEG 43KT 3348 9563

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TXZ107-122-123-162200-
HOPKINS TX-RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
329 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HOPKINS COUNTY
  RAINS COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 329 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF WILLS POINT...MOVING NORTH AT 60
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMO...CUMBY...EAST
TAWAKONI...EMORY...SULPHUR SPRINGS AND LAKE TAWAKONI STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3266 9574 3279 9601 3286 9595 3287 9597
      3299 9591 3299 9587 3307 9587 3329 9576
      3332 9571 3313 9532 3295 9548 3295 9564
      3279 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 201DEG 55KT 3276 9586

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