Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WWUS84 KFWD 051753
RFWFWD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1153 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TXZ115-116-129>132-141>144-156>160-174-060000-
/O.CON.KFWD.FW.W.0009.080205T1800Z-080206T0000Z/
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-MILAM-
1153 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES.

DESPITE MORNING RAINFALL...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING THROUGH
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA WITH WINDS SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HUMIDITIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TO BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT. WINDS MAY GUSTY TO NEAR 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CURED
FINE FUELS WILL CREATE A BRIEF CRITICAL GRASS FIRE DANGER THROUGH
6 PM. 

AVOID ALL OUTSIDE BURNING...TOSSING LIT CIGARETTE BUTTS OUT CAR
WINDOWS..AND ANY WELDING OUTSIDE TODAY. REPORT WILD FIRES TO THE
NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE.

$$

05/

000 
WWUS84 KFWD 052354
RFWFWD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...THE RED FLAG WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

.THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6
PM.


TXZ115-116-129>132-141>144-156>160-174-060100-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080206T0000Z/
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-
HAMILTON-BOSQUE-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-MILAM-
554 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
248 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS
OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS
THIS MORNING...SOME SEVERE. DYNAMIC LIFT IS NOW BEGINNING TO OVER
SPREAD NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT STORMS ARE ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRODUCING MU CAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN AMPLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES...INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG...BUT CURRENTLY TORNADO
THREAT IS MITIGATED BY LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO INGEST
SURFACE PARCELS DUE TO CAP AROUND 850 MB. THE RUC SHOWS A NARROW
OPPORTUNITY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE THE CAP
ERODES ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AFTER DAY BREAK. THUS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR DISCRETE STORMS CLOSELY FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

ASIDE FROM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A
CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES
OVER THE AREA. WILL GENERALLY SIDE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/RUC
FORECASTS WITH THE DRY SLOT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS 20-30KT 925MB WINDS
TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME LOW DEWPOINTS. DESPITE
MORNING RAINS IN THE AREA...A COUPLE HOURS OF SUN...DRY
WINDS...AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL DRY OUT THE FREEZE DRIED
GRASSES AND FUELS. WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SW ZONES.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH PLEASANTLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. NO RAIN WITH EITHER SYSTEM
AND IT WILL ONLY SERVE TO SWITCH WINDS AROUND AND REINFORCE THE
MILD WEATHER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT BACK-DOORING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS POLAR HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WILL SHOW
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS IS TRYING
TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  37  56  37  60 /  80   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              76  36  58  38  63 /  60   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             72  35  51  33  54 / 100   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            71  33  56  33  59 /  80   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          71  34  55  31  57 /  90   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            72  40  56  38  59 /  80   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           73  38  55  36  59 /  80   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  40  56  37  64 /  70   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            77  38  60  37  65 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ115-116-129>132-141>144-156>160-174.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-052100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
310 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DRIER AIR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MINERAL WELLS...TO LAKE
WHITNEY...TO HEARNE WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS MORNING.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

TXZ141-142-050830-
COMANCHE TX-MILLS TX-
205 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COMANCHE COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN MILLS COUNTY

AT 205 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TWO STRONG STORMS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THIS CLUSTER...ONE IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF
MILLS COUNTY AND A SECOND STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF COMANCHE COUNTY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE COMANCHE...DE LEON AND
DEMOCRAT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3148 9899 3161 9878 3169 9876 3171 9868
      3198 9886 3219 9850 3191 9831 3141 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0805Z 222DEG 52KT 3153 9883

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
246 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     HAIL             3 W PRIDDY              31.67N  98.56W
02/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       MILLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SO REPORTS HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE APPROXIMATELY 3
            MILES WEST OF PRIDDY AND JUST SOUTH OF DEMOCRAT