Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WWUS84 KFWD 042050 CCA
RFWFWD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...RED FLAG WARNNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE 
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW 
HUMIDITIES...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.STRONG MIXING OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS...ALONG WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES FALLING WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA. FINE FUELS REMAIN WELL CURED AS WELL
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS...THUS A HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AND
HUMIDITIES WILL RAPIDLY RISE EARLY THIS EVENING. 

TXZ100>102-115>118-129>133-141>144-050230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FW.W.0008.080204T1900Z-080205T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.FW.A.0006.080205T1800Z-080206T0000Z/
YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
1217 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT
TIMES WILL COINCIDE WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TO CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA. 

A DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON...CREATING
A VERY HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR...WHILE A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR
WILL SHORTLY. AVOID ALL OUTSIDE BURNING AND WELDING TODAY. DO NOT
TOSS LIT CIGARETTE BUTTS OUTSIDE. REPORT WILD FIRES TO THE NEAREST
FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE.

$$

TXZ091>093-103-050000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FW.W.0008.080204T1900Z-080205T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-DENTON-
1217 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT
TIMES WILL COINCIDE WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TO CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. AVOID ALL OUTSIDE
BURNING AND WELDING TODAY. DO NOT TOSS LIT CIGARETTE BUTTS
OUTSIDE. REPORT WILD FIRES TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE.

$$

TXZ134-145>147-156>162-174-175-050230-
/O.CON.KFWD.FW.A.0006.080205T1800Z-080206T0000Z/
ELLIS-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1217 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON...CREATING
A VERY HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

05/

000 
WWUS84 KFWD 042345 AAA
RFWFWD

RED FLAG WARNING...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WILL
EXPIRE AT 6 PM...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH BEHIND A DRY LINE TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY HIGH GRASS 
FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


TXZ100>102-115>118-129>133-141>144-050530-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080205T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.FW.A.0006.080205T1800Z-080206T0000Z/
YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
545 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH BEHIND A DRY LINE TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY HIGH GRASS
FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

TXZ091>093-103-050045-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080205T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-DENTON-
545 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

$$

TXZ134-145>147-156>162-174-175-050530-
/O.CON.KFWD.FW.A.0006.080205T1800Z-080206T0000Z/
ELLIS-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
545 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

A DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH DRY AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY
AFTERNOON...CREATING A VERY HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH BEHIND A DRY LINE TUESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY HIGH GRASS 
FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.UPDATE...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT 24 HRS WITH ISSUANCE OF 18Z TAFS. MVFR
CIGS THAT HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN STRONG LLJ OVRNGT IS NOW STARTING
TO MIX OUT ALONG BACK EDGE...AS STRONG INSOLATION/MIXING OCCUR
BELOW STOUT CAP. THUS...GSTY S FLO 16-21 KTS..WITH GSTS APCHG 30
KTS THIS AFTN WILL COMBINE WITH VFR CONDS WITH RECORD TEMPS
LIKELY.

MAIN CRUX OF 35-45KT BL LLJ TO REMAIN JUST ESE OF N TX TAFS
TONIGHT...WITH BACK EDGE OF BETTER BL MSTR AND MVFR CIGS RETURNING
AFTR 06Z TUES...AS MAIN UPR LOW LIFTS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TRIPLE PT/SFC LO SINKS TOWARD KABI/KBWD/KRPH AREA BY 12Z...THEN
LIFTS NE TOWARD KPRX/KGLE AREA ALONG RED RIVER BY 18Z TUES. WELL
LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME GENERAL TSRA/IFR CHANCES FOR NOW BY 08Z TUES OR
AFTR PER MDDELS. THOUGH MOST OF N TX IN SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY GR/GSTY TSRA WINDS THIS EARLY IN THE
GAME. DRYLINE S OF TRIPLE POINT SHOULD PUNCH IN TOWARD THE END OF
THE THE FCST PD BTWN 16Z-18Z...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
BELIEVE. FOR NOW WILL USE 17Z TUES AS ENDING TIME FOR
TSRA/MVFR/IFR POTENTIAL...THOUGH COULD BE SOONER AROUND
WACO(KACT).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008/

UPDATE...

FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK. ONLY MODIFICATION WAS AN INCREASE
IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES INCREASING A BIT FASTER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.

77/TDUD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS ENVELOP MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
CEILINGS IN MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SCATTER OUT INTO VFR AT 18-19Z. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THEN PROVIDE A BROKEN DECK UNTIL STRATUS RETURNS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 16-21 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT LLWS TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE MORNING HOURS
AND THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO REMOVE MENTION FROM
TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS
TUESDAY MORNING BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT
FOR THIS PACKAGE AS CURRENT THINKING IS IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS
WILL OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z.

82/JLD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008/

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WITH SW WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
DRY LINE MARCHING EASTWARD AND STALLING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING THIS EVENING.
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL
ISSUE A RFD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE JUST
BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR
BOTH DFW AND ACT...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS /IN THE MID 80S/ ACROSS
THE NW ZONES WHERE LESS HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN TO NEAR 8 DEG C/KM. WHILE THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL FEATURE
UNSEASONABLY HIGH MID 60 DEW POINTS...IT WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PLOWS IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BLEND OF ALL THE MODELS FOR POP
FORECASTS/TIMING. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 3 AM
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6
AM AND INTENSIFYING AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO BETTER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND/OR
SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION...TORNADO POTENTIAL IN QUESTION
DUE TO A WEDGE OF DRY AIR FROM 850MB TO 700MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELEVATED MIX LAYER. ATTM WE WILL SPECIFICALLY MENTION DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THE HWO...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM GAINESVILLE TO HILLSBORO TO PALESTINE...AND LET LATER SHIFTS
INVESTIGATE ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

RAIN/COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST AND OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS
USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH 20-25
MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF MAY
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE DRY AND WEAK
FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MEANS FAIRLY
NICE FEBRUARY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF IS DRY...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  67  31  55 /   5  60  60   0   0
WACO, TX              80  63  71  27  59 /   5  40  40   0   0
PARIS, TX             78  62  64  31  50 /  10  60  90   0   0
DENTON, TX            84  61  64  25  55 /   5  60  50   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          82  62  65  27  53 /   5  60  70   0   0
DALLAS, TX            82  63  66  34  54 /   5  60  60   0   0
TERRELL, TX           80  63  68  31  54 /  10  60  70   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  64  71  31  57 /  10  50  60   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            80  63  72  32  60 /   5  40  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ100>102-115>118-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

99/92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
414 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
414 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXISTS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT AND AS LOW AS THE TEENS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
IN ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A DRYLINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

82/JLD