Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES AS RAINFALL RATES ARE REACHING SEVERAL INCHES PER ONE TO
TWO HOURS. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7
PM CDT FOR THE SAME AREA DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS...THE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND THE FACT
THAT SEVERAL AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INUNDATED WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. DID NOT CHANGE THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE
WATCH BECAUSE MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND IT REMAINS TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL TODAY. I DO FEEL THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES YESTERDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MORE
PROBLEMS AND THUS WAS HESITANT TO REMOVE THOSE COUNTIES FROM THE
WATCH.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING SOME ENERGY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH
AND THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE EAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN IT APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CREEP UP FROM SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEVER REALLY BUILDS
ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE STAYING WEST OF US...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE
FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HIGHER
THAN THE MID 90S. CURRENTLY...FAY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF
TEXAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER...EXCEPT TO HELP BRING NORTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  73  91  75  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
WACO, TX              86  70  92  73  93 /  60  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             79  68  86  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  68  91  73  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  66  90  72  90 /  70  30  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            84  74  90  76  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           81  69  88  74  90 /  70  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         85  70  90  73  92 /  70  30  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  71  92  73  92 /  60  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
542 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TODAY...WITH AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF A GRAHAM TO GRANBURY TO KILLEEN LINE. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST
INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
AREA WIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR FLASH FLOODING.