Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ALL
DAY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH
FORECAST PERIOD WAS TRYING TO PINPOINT A GOOD MODEL. GFS WAS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHILE NAM DID NOT SEEM
AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. SO...ECMWF WAS THE BEST CHOICE WITH A BLEND OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. SPENT SIGNIFICANT TIME ON DECIDING WHICH
MODEL TO USE BECAUSE IT SEEMED TO BE A LARGE FACTOR FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GOAL WAS TO GET BEST HANDLE ON SPEED OF
UPPER LEVEL LOW BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WERE GOING UP FASTER WITH THE
GFS DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE
WARMING TOO FAST WITH THAT MODEL. ASSESSED THE NAM NEXT...BUT IT
DID NOT BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND FAST ENOUGH...WHICH RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES BEING TOO COOL. SO...THE ECMWF ENDED UP BEING THE
BEST CHOICE.

NEXT...KEPT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. TRENDED ABOVE HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD...DID NOT FEEL AMOUNTS WERE HIGH
ENOUGH GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING ALREADY
OCCURRING.

IN THE EXTENDED...DRY CONDITIONS START FILTERING IN ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

77/TLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  79  70  83  71 /  80  80  70  50  20
WACO, TX              71  85  69  87  72 /  80  80  70  40  30
PARIS, TX             66  78  67  83  67 /  70  80  70  70  50
DENTON, TX            67  79  68  83  69 /  70  70  70  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  81  67  84  68 /  70  80  70  60  30
DALLAS, TX            70  82  69  83  71 /  70  80  70  50  30
TERRELL, TX           68  82  68  83  68 /  70  80  70  70  40
CORSICANA, TX         69  85  67  85  69 /  80  80  70  70  40
TEMPLE, TX            69  85  67  86  68 /  80  80  70  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

79/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.