Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM NEAR
STEPHENVILLE TO COMANCHE. EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF TD EDOUARD TO
CONTINUE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF SHOWERS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR PALESTINE TO
CANTON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 20 TO 40 POPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WEST. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK AND WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WHERE THE SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008/

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD CONTINUES MOVING WEST THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ITS PATH WILL TAKE THE CENTER THROUGH WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS...EXITING THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
EDOUARD HAS BEGUN PRODUCING SOME MODERATE RAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...AND ITS SPIRAL PATTERN IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON RADAR...THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT NOCTURNAL CORE RAINS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST
ITS POTENCY. THE 4 AM ADVISORY FROM HPC NOTES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 MPH...WITH AN UNIMPRESSIVE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
29.85 INCHES. REGARDLESS...ANY WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH UNSTABLE MT AIR WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. FWD 00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED THE PERIPHERY OF EDOUARD...PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN ALONG ITS PATH. THE AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES AND
POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE PATH OF EDOUARD
IN SW COUNTIES... GENERALLY BKD-GDJ-ILE AND SOUTHWEST. VORTICITY
OF THE SYSTEM IMPARTED TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONG
STORM...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. REMAINDER OF CWA WILL SEE
WEAKENING SPEED SHEAR AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

DFW AIRPORT HAS SEEN 100 DEGREES OR MORE 17 OF THE LAST 18 DAYS.
THE ONLY DAY THAT FAILED TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS WAS JULY 24 WHEN
CLOUDINESS FROM DOLLY KEPT HIGHS IN THE 90S. SIMILAR SCENARIO
TODAY AS LOWERED HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY YIELD BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY LINGER THURSDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL APPEARS
THAT...AS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD SLIDE WEST ALONG THE UNDERBELLY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NW
FLOW INDUCED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY ALLOW A NOCTURNAL MCS
TO CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION...AND HOW RAINFALL IMPACTS SURFACE TEMPS...COULD
SEE A COLD FRONT (OR EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY) SLIP INTO NORTH
TEXAS FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS...BUT THIS
MAY HELP DELAY THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
ALTHOUGH RIDGING APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSE
THAN RECENT WEEKS. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SUBSTANTIAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS FAILING TO
RE-ESTABLISH A RIDGE IN EARLY-TO-MID AUGUST REQUIRES CONFLICT WITH
CLIMATOLOGY. ANY PROSPECTS TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT WILL BE
WELCOME NEWS.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...

DFW CURRENTLY AT 12 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH 100 DEGREES OR MORE. ONE
MORE DAY (TODAY) AND THIS STREAK WOULD TIE FOR 10TH LONGEST ON
RECORD...THOUGH THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY.

CURRENT STREAK IS LONGEST SINCE 19 STRAIGHT DAYS IN AUGUST 2006.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  77  96  78  97 /  30  10  20  20  20
WACO, TX              93  74  96  76  97 /  40  20  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             93  72  93  73  93 /  30  10  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            92  75  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  95  73  94 /  20  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            93  76  95  77  97 /  30  10  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           93  73  95  74  95 /  30  10  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         94  74  96  74  95 /  40  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  95  73  97 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-062200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
545 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE... TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A
BONHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS. MOREOVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A BRECKENRIDGE...CENTERVILLE LINE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...NORTHEAST OF
AN EASTLAND...CENTERVILLE LINE. FINALLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST OF A GRAHAM...CENTERVILLE
LINE.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

26

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
830 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

TXZ115>117-129>133-141>145-156>161-174-175-061700-
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
830 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TODAY ALONG THE PATH OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD...

AT 8 AM...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF STEPHENVILLE. THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF COMANCHE AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN GAGES FROM NEAR HAMILTON INDICATE
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATING IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES JUST WEST OF HAMILTON.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A CISCO TO STEPHENVILLE
TO LAMPASAS LINE.

WITH THE VERY DRY GROUND...CONSIDERABLE RAIN CAN FALL WITH MINIMAL
FLOODING IMPACTS...HOWEVER...FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS AND
CREEKS IS LIKELY. NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES INTO AN AREA WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE TODAY...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

91/25