Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #556 FOR YOUNG AND
JACK COUNTIES. STILL MAY BE A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION NEAR
FREDERICK REACHES THEM. LESS ORGANIZED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY OVER LAMAR...DELTA AND HOPKINS
COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN MOST STORM IS CURRENTLY SEVERE AND WILL
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS IT IS EXHIBITING BACKBUILDING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES.   SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF PACKAGE
THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS BUT SEVERAL
DISRUPTIONS TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY ERUPTED IN OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH. BASED
ON THEIR CURRENT TRACKS...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MISS THE
AIRPORTS AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KDAL.
WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN KDAL FROM 02-06Z AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL
METROPLEX SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BOUNDARY LIES NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR STRONG
STORMS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP IN THE
METROPLEX AFTER 18Z.

WINDS IN THE METROPLEX HAVE BACKED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WACO WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ARE
BLOW-OFF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH.

82/JLD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008/

DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE IS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RIDGE AXIS HAS SHOWN SOME RETROGRESSION WESTWARD
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS CAN MAKE
IT WELL INTO THE CWA IS INCREASING...HOWEVER...THINK BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WHEN
STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY AXIS IS
POSITIONED MORE FAVORABLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT BEING
SAID...MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY BACKED OFF OF THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH BUT THINK
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.
WILL HAVE SOME 30/40 POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE DOESNT GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
FOR TOMORROW...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS LATE TOMORROW AFTN
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS TO
MAKE IT ACROSS THE RED RIVER BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

RAIN CHANCES DONT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY
RIGHT NOW...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING AND ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT SLATED TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL
MCS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  95  75  93 /  20  30  40  20
WACO, TX              77  97  74  94 /  10  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             72  88  70  89 /  40  50  50  20
DENTON, TX            75  91  71  91 /  20  30  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  91  71  91 /  20  30  50  20
DALLAS, TX            77  94  74  93 /  20  30  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  92  71  90 /  20  30  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  95  73  90 /  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/82

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

TXZ095-170030-
LAMAR TX-
704 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF PARIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 8
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM AND DEPORT.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3338 9530 3340 9537 3343 9540 3343 9545
      3345 9549 3345 9552 3346 9553 3376 9552
      3375 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 323DEG 7KT 3366 9539

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N COMO                33.10N  95.48W
06/16/2008                   HOPKINS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NORTH OF COMO