Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS COLD POOL INTENSIFIES FROM TREMENDOUS
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. BOW ECHO NOW FORMING SOUTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST WITH WIND DAMAGE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH
EASTLAND COUNTY. EXPECT THAT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...LINE
OF STORMS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND HAVE RAISED
POPS THERE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CWA WHERE MERGER OF STORMS OVER GRANDBURY REMINISCENT OF
THE MAYFEST STORM. CLEARED THE TOR WATCH FROM THE NW CWA...BUT
OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATING FOR NEW TORNADO WATCH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MCS/BOW ECHO
EVOLUTION OUT OF WESTERN CONVECTION AS EVERYTHING TRACKS EAST.
TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY LOWER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAKER AND CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BECOME LESS
DISCRETE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST ATTM. TR.92

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

UPDATE...
630 PM.
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH INTENSE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF A KDFW-KMAF LINE AND ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08Z AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
REGION.  DRYLINE SETTING UP OUT WEST FOR TOMORROW...BUT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THE REMAIN TO THE WEST.

LARGE TSRA COMPLEX WEST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE KDFW
TRACON THROUGH 03Z...AFFECTING METROPLEX TAF SITES 01-03Z. WE WILL
LIKELY ISSUE AN AWW FOR STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL/CG LIGHTING DURING
THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (VCTS) POSSIBLE AFTERWARD THROUGH
08Z. HAVE KEPT CIGS 030-040 MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MINOR 6SM HZ
08-15Z.

KACT SHOULD FAIR BETTER WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION...BUT MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

WINDS SOUTH 13-18KT THIS TAF CYCLE BUT STRONG AND GUSTY DURING
CONVECTION.  75

PREV DISCUSSION...
328 PM.
PER 18Z SOUNDING CAP REMAINS IN PLACE. IT WEAKENED AS THIS
MORNING/S VORT MAX MOVED OVER BUT DID NOT MIX OUT COMPLETELY.
THIS VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY KICKING UP STORMS IN NORTHEAST TX AND
IS LIKELY NO LONGER A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING
EXPECT NEW ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS N CNTRL TX/WRN N TX AND PRODUCE
NEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NW THRU W COUNTIES. THIS ENERGY IS
ALREADY HELPING WEST TX STORMS GET GOING BUT IT CURRENTLY HAS
LOTS OF HELP FROM LVL UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL.

PRECIP SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND OKLAHOMA WHERE THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER. LARGE
HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...BUT
INCREASING SHEAR THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST THRU WEST.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY MOST AREAS. DRY LINE SHOULD STAY WEST OF
US BUT WITH GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
KICK OFF THERE THURSDAY AFTN. IF THEY DRIFT EAST THEY SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS THEY HIT THE CAPPED AIR OVER N TX BUT MAY LAST INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. I ADDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST
THURS AFTN/EVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS.

NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS N TX ON FRIDAY BEGINNING
MID MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST. FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AND KEEPS LOW THREAT OF POPS ACROSS SOUTH THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU SUNDAY WITH MORE POPS. THEN MODELS PROG US
TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THRU DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  85  67  78  58 / 100  10  10  30  30
WACO, TX              68  86  68  79  60 /  60  10  10  30  50
PARIS, TX             66  82  65  74  56 /  90  20  10  30  30
DENTON, TX            66  85  67  77  55 / 100  10  10  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  85  67  78  55 /  90  10  10  30  30
DALLAS, TX            67  86  68  78  59 /  90  10  10  30  30
TERRELL, TX           67  85  66  77  59 /  80  10  10  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         67  85  67  79  60 /  70  10  10  30  50
TEMPLE, TX            67  86  67  80  60 /  40  10  10  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     HAIL             1 W WHITNEY             31.95N  97.34W
04/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       HILL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS NEAR WHITE BLUFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND GST     VENUS                   32.43N  97.10W
04/23/2008  E65 MPH          JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED 65-70 MPH AT VENUS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BURLESON                32.53N  97.33W
04/23/2008                   JOHNSON            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SOUTH BURLESON - 8 INCHES OVER ROADS AT HWY 174.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E OVILLA              32.54N  96.84W
04/23/2008  M65 MPH          ELLIS              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED 65 MPH WIND GUSTS EAST OF OVILLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALVARADO                32.41N  97.21W
04/23/2008                   JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
929 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND GST     HILLSBORO               32.01N  97.12W
04/23/2008  M66 MPH          HILL               TX   ASOS

            54 KNOT GUST FROM HILLSBORO ASOS