Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD

000 
WWUS43 KFSD 100910
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS RAINFALL...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN START TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE
WIND TO CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST NEAR A
LINE FROM GREGORY SOUTH DAKOTA TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA WHERE AREAS OF A
FOOT OR MORE OF SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY.

MNZ071-072-080-097-SDZ038>040-050-052>061-063>065-068-101715-
/O.CAN.KFSD.WS.W.0001.080410T1800Z-080412T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.080410T1800Z-080412T0000Z/
LINCOLN-LYON-MURRAY-PIPESTONE-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-GREGORY-
JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-
MCCOOK-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...
IVANHOE...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...PIPESTONE...HURON...
DE SMET...ARLINGTON...LAKE PRESTON...BROOKINGS...GREGORY...
BURKE...WESSINGTON SPRINGS...ALPENA...WOONSOCKET...HOWARD...
MADISON...FLANDREAU...CHAMBERLAIN...KIMBALL...PLANKINTON...
WHITE LAKE...STICKNEY...MITCHELL...ALEXANDRIA...EMERY...SALEM...
CANISTOTA...BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...WAGNER...PLATTE...
LAKE ANDES...MARTY...ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT...PARKSTON...
FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
AVON...TABOR
410 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. ONE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SNOW...THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
ON FRIDAY...BUT THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM EIGHT TO
THIRTEEN INCHES..THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

IAZ001-MNZ098-SDZ062-066-067-069-070-101715-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0005.080410T1800Z-080412T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.080411T0000Z-080412T0000Z/
LYON-ROCK-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-LINCOLN-YANKTON-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...LUVERNE...SIOUX FALLS...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...
MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG...YANKTON...VERMILLION
410 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
ON FRIDAY...BUT THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
SIX TO TEN INCHES...THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MNZ081-089-090-101715-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0005.080410T1800Z-080412T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.080411T0000Z-080412T0000Z/
COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...WORTHINGTON...
JACKSON...LAKEFIELD
410 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM CDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE INCHES...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND IMPAIR TRAVEL.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

IAZ002-012-NEZ013-SDZ071-101715-
/O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0006.080411T0600Z-080412T0000Z/
OSCEOLA-SIOUX-DIXON-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIBLEY...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...
WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
410 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY. 

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN TWO TO FOUR INCHES...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THIS EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND IMPAIR
TRAVEL.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$
BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
520 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MID CLOUDS NOW SPREADING ACRS CWA ATTM AS MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF
MAJOR STORM OVERSPREADS REGION. LOW LEVELS STILL DRY SO IT WL TAKE
TIME TO SAT LOW LEVELS. SHUD SAT FM S TO N DURING THE NIGHT WITH
RAIN SPREAD S TO N DURING THE NIGHT. MOST WDSPRD RAIN TONIGHT WL BE
S OF I90. WARM ENUF ALOFT MOST OF NIGHT TO KEEP PRECIP R BUT CUD
COOL ENUF ACRS FAR W TOWARDS 10Z TO MIX WITH SNOW. TEMPS TONIGHT WL
NOT DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40.

WITH THE EVENT NEARING...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES WITH UPCOMING STORM...AT LEAST
WITH REGARD TO THE NAM/GFS/AND ECMWF. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE THE
OUTLIERS...KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW FARTHER TO THE
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS BECOMES THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...AS THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD PULL WARMER AIR INTO OUR
EASTERN CWA...THUS CUTTING DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA. WENT
CLOSER TO THE COOLER SOLUTION IN FORECAST PREPARATION...BUT BLENDED
IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKING IT INTO OUR EAST. AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS... IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROWAL AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER OUR CWA ON THURSDAY INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY. ALSO APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE CONVECTIVE
OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...WITH NEGATIVE MID LEVEL EPV AND NEGATIVE
700 TO 500 MB THETA E LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MODELS ARE OUTPUTTING AMAZING QPF AMOUNTS...WITH 6 HOUR
PRECIP AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FA. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
CERTAIN THAT PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ARE GOING TO HAVE MAJOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ORIENTED
FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. IT LOOKS
THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY. THE BIG DETERMINANT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS GOING
TO LIE IN HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BECAUSE ONCE IT CHANGES OVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE EVENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z THROUGH MUCH OF OUR FAR
WEST...THEN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE ROUGHLY
FROM YANKTON TO CANTON TO ROCK RAPIDS TO SPIRIT LAKE. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD ON TO THE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH 03 TO 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT ENTIRELY CHANGE TO SNOW
IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF NORTHWEST IOWA UNTIL CLOSE TO
12Z ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WILL BECOME VERY WINDY WITH
THE TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...THINK THAT WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL HAVE
TROUBLE REALLY BECOMING AIRBORNE TO ANY GREAT DEGREE. IN TERMS OF
HEADLINES...KEPT THE WATCH GOING...AND REFRAINED FROM A WARNING WITH
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION...THOUGH FEEL SURE
THAT EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL ISSUE A WARNING AT LEAST THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY WHERE IT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

WITH A WEAKENING TROWAL OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND STILL COULD PICK UP 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO WIND DOWN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY AS FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ARE LOST...THEN WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY...BUT REMAINING COLD WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THERE WILL BE WARMING ON SUNDAY...WENT MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE
WITH ANTICIPATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR BECMG MVFR AFT 06Z AND BECMG IFR AFT 12Z. WDSPRD RAIN WL SPREAD
N DURING THE NIGHT CHANGING TO S AFT 12Z FM W TO E.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ001.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

NE...NONE.

SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>070.

&&

JM/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
453 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-101200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
453 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CHANGING TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VERMILLION SOUTH
DAKOTA...TO ROCK RAPIDS IOWA AND JACKSON MINNESOTA WILL LIKELY
SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

 JH