Wind Chill Advisory 12, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
459 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAS TAKEN A LITTLE WHILE FOR PRECIP TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN CWA THIS
MORNING...AS MID LEVEL FRONT REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL UPPER
LEVEL WAVE BEGAN TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF WYOMING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE WEST BEGAN REPORTING BLOWING SNOW EVEN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FALLING PRECIP THOUGH...EVIDENCE OF THE POWERFUL WINDS BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED BETWEEN KSUX-KCKP IN NORTHWEST
IOWA AS OF 10Z. VERY IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH 10Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 20-25F SPREAD
BETWEEN I-29 CORRIDOR AND JAMES VALLEY. RUC AND NAM 2 METER TEMPS
SEEMED TO HAVE TO BEST HANDLE ON THE SHARP GRADIENT SO FAR...AND
HAVE USED THEM AS A GUIDE FOR PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH EASTERN
CWA THIS MORNING.

BACK TO THE PRECIP...ECHOES HAVE EXPANDED WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND GENERAL IDEA OF LIFTING HEAVIEST OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA STILL LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND FOCUS OF DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE IN THESE AREAS. WEAKLY STABLE PROFILE ABOVE
THE MID LEVEL FRONT COULD IN FACT ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND HAVE
BUMPED TOTALS UP TO A MAX AROUND 8 INCHES OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING
WINTER HEADLINES. WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING GOING IN AREA WHERE
GREATEST SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAINLY FOR BLOWING SNOW THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE LIMITED. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES
AT THIS POINT WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY END TIME TO
MATCH UP WITH BLIZZARD WARNING EXPIRATION AT 06Z TONIGHT. THOUGH SNOW
WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW
THREAT INTO THE EVENING. WINDS STRONG ENOUGH...IN FACT...THAT EVEN
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA WILL GET IN ON THE HEADLINES THOUGH...WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FROM SOUTHEAST OF A KSUX-KSPW LINE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

FOCUS OF CONCERN SHIFTS TO ARCTIC AIR AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
VALUES OVERNIGHT AND REALLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES IN AND ALLOWS WINDS TO DROP OFF. GOING LOW TEMPS IN THE
10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY FORCE WIND CHILLS INTO
WARNING RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH BLIZZARD
JUST STARTING TO CRANK UP ACROSS THE AREA...DID NOT WANT TO MUDDLE
HEADLINES BY ADDING IN WIND CHILL HEADLINE JUST YET. WILL HIGHLIGHT
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE FORECAST/HWO FOR NOW.

STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE.
CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH
2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND IFR-LIFR VSBYS
EXPECTED IN SN/BLSN TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH SFC WNDS 30-40KTS AND VLIFR VSBYS IN SN/BLSN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT NORTHWEST OF KYKN-KFSD-KMWM LINE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SURFACE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ001-
     012-020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ002-
     003-013.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ014-021-022-031-032.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ080-
     089-097-098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ081-
     090.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ013.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ014.

SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ061-
     062-065>071.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ038>040-050-
     052>060-063-064.

&&

 JH

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