Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 271303
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
803 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

SDC073-271315-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-080727T1315Z/
JERAULD SD-
803 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR JERAULD COUNTY...

AT 803 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WESSINGTON
SPRINGS...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HURON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 34
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   LANE AROUND 810 AM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. GO INSIDE A STURDY
BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4420 9834 4419 9834 4393 9834 4393 9892
      4416 9893 4420 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 310DEG 29KT 4403 9855

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OCURRING IN THE STATE. THE FIRST IS HEADING
THROUGH THE KFSD AREA AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE AIR MASS IS
MORE STABLE OVER NW IA. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE 800 MB FRONT AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
MID MORNING...AFFECTING PRIMARILY SW MN AND EC SD. A SECOND
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT THE NRN CWA LATER THIS MORNING
AS 30 KT OF INFLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO KEEP CONVECTION
GOING. ALSO ENOUGH SHEAR TO KEEP THE GUST FRONT FROM ACCELERATING
AHEAD.

THE RESULT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE TO KEEP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH OF I90...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM...WHICH WAS FOLLOWED
FOR THIS FORECAST. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 70 F...IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
SE MT WILL REACH CNTRL SD BY MID AFTERNOON AND EXPECT NEW CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SC SD AND SPREAD EAST OR ESE TOWARD
SUX AND INTO NW IOWA. ENOUGH ORGANIZATION EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS. LCL COULD BE LOW ENOUGH AND ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM
THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. WHILE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUN...ESP WEST OF I29 FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S.  FARTHER EAST...TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
THE WAVE MOVES INTO IOWA. WHILE A WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TONIGHT...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AS
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG OR N OF I90.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH ONLY SOME PEA SIZE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

MONDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY AS THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH
AND THE CWA IS WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. FOR NOW...EXPECT 90S ONLY
IN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS ALTHOUGH IF WARM AIR SURGES
FARTHER NORTH COULD SEE 100 AROUND 9V9 AND 90S OVER MUCH OF SE SD
AND NW IA. WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...IT WILL ALSO
BE VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
THE MISSOURI VALLEY INCLUDING SUX. A BOUNDARY AND STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS
CHANCE WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH
THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN...VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE BUT SHEAR WILL BE
LESS...20-30 KTS SO STORMS LIKELY TO BE MORE MULTICELLULAR.
HOWEVER...WITH THETA-E DIFFERENCES GREATER THAN 30K OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A GREATER THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES BEYOND TUESDAY DUE TO CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN SW
MN AS WELL AS AROUND INTO KFSD PRIOR TO 10Z.  OTHER CONVECTION COUDL
AFFECT KHON THROUH MID MORNING. ANY CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.  MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90. THIS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS AND MVFR OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. BEST
CHANCE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE FROM 20Z - 02Z. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SCHUMACHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-281200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
355 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE. THERE
WOULD ALSO BE A CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH IF STORMS DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AROUND HURON AND DE SMET. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE JAMES RIVER IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCHUMACHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
138 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     WESSINGTON SPRINGS      44.08N 98.57W
07/27/2008  E60 MPH          JERAULD            SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
158 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 AM     TSTM WND GST     WOONSOCKET              44.05N 98.27W
07/27/2008  E60 MPH          SANBORN            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJANSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
214 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 AM     TSTM WND GST     FEDORA                  44.01N 97.79W
07/27/2008  E60 MPH          MINER              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJANSEN