Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 270552
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1251 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

SDC003-035-073-111-270615-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080627T0615Z/
JERAULD SD-SANBORN SD-AURORA SD-DAVISON SD-
1251 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR DAVISON...EASTERN AURORA...SOUTHWESTERN SANBORN AND SOUTHEASTERN
JERAULD COUNTIES...

AT 1251 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF FORESTBURG TO MOUNT 
VERNON TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STICKNEY...MOVING EAST AT 44 MPH.

BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS. 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   FORESTBURG...LOOMIS AROUND 100 AM CDT...
   MITCHELL AROUND 105 AM CDT...

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4384 9797 4363 9796 4349 9814 4352 9822
      4352 9832 4353 9833 4357 9856 4378 9850
      4402 9837 4404 9808
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 286DEG 38KT 4399 9824 4369 9820
          4355 9845

$$

CJ

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 270603
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
103 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

SDC073-270613-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080627T0615Z/
JERAULD SD-
103 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JERAULD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4397 9806 4384 9797 4363 9796 4349 9813
      4351 9821 4352 9822 4353 9833 4354 9836
      4376 9832 4398 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 286DEG 38KT 4395 9807 4365 9803
          4351 9829

$$

SDC003-035-111-270615-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080627T0615Z/
SANBORN SD-AURORA SD-DAVISON SD-
103 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR DAVISON...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AURORA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SANBORN
COUNTIES...

AT 103 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF LETCHER TO 5 MILES SOUTH
OF MITCHELL TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT VERNON...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF MITCHELL TO MITCHELL TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MITCHELL...MOVING EAST AT 44 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4397 9806 4384 9797 4363 9796 4349 9813
      4351 9821 4352 9822 4353 9833 4354 9836
      4376 9832 4398 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 286DEG 38KT 4395 9807 4365 9803
          4351 9829

$$

CJ

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 270614
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
114 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

SDC003-035-111-270624-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080627T0615Z/
SANBORN SD-AURORA SD-DAVISON SD-
114 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DAVISON...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
AURORA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SANBORN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM
CDT...

THE STORM IS NO LONGER SEVERE. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL STILL 
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4397 9806 4384 9797 4363 9796 4349 9813
      4352 9821 4353 9833 4354 9836 4376 9832
      4398 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 286DEG 38KT 4391 9791 4361 9788
          4348 9814

$$

CJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
855 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION PRESENTLY BEARING DOWN ON OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST. FIRST ONE IS PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHERE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDE. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL MOST
LIKELY MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND 05Z. THERE HAS
BEEN A GOOD DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS COMPLEX...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...AND WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD OVER OUR
AREA...ATMOSPHERE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN BY THE TIME
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. SECONDARY MCS PUSHING OUT OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REACH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AGAIN...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
POSSIBILITY THAT BOTH SYSTEMS WILL CONVERGE OVER OUR CWA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS...THEN PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...BRINGING
SWATH OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.  /JM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM...NOTHING MUCH GOING ON AS CWA BTWN SHORT WAVES
WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTN THRU EARLY EVE. GFS
VERIFYING MUCH BTR THEN NAM WITH RETURN SELY FLOW WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR SETTING UP OVR CWA. AS MAJOR SHORT WAVE MOVES OVR DKTS
TNGT...THIS SHOULD INDUCE MAJOR MCS DVLPMT IN CNTRL SD THIS EVE...
GRADUALLY DVLPG ESEWD OVR CWA DURG NGT WITH LCLLY HEAVY RAINS. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SVR WOULD BE JAMES VALLEY WEST THIS EVE WITH BEST
INFLOW AND INSTABILITY...MOVG DOWN THRU MO VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS
I90 AFT MIDN. BEST QPF FOCUS ON MOST MODELS EXCPT NAM IS I90
NORTH...BUT NO REASON FOR MCS NOT TO TURN SE TO THE S OF I90 WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED THIS MRNG...ESP IN NWRN IA...SO PUT OUT FFA TO
COVER PSBLTY OF TRAINING OVER SAME AREA. TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THRU
ERN CWA BY FRI MRNG AS TROF MOVES EAST.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOWING UPPER PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW
INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA WITH THIS BEFORE SUNSET.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND...AND APPEARS TO BE TRENDING A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER
LOW...SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CERTAINTY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MN. NOT A
GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO WENT WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE MID-CHANCE/SCATTERED RANGE DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED.
WITH LOW TRENDING FARTHER WEST...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOING LIKEWISE
AND HAVE COOLED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING SOME AREAS FROM KBKX-KOTG IN THE UPPER 60S.
SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY WINDY SATURDAY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS TO HELP PULL SOME STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

MAIN UPPER LOW PULLS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...BUT
MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON
THE BACK SIDE. AIRMASS STARTING TO DRY OUT SOME IN DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW BY THEN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH HAVE
TRENDED SKY COVER UP FROM MOSTLY CLEAR WHICH WE HAD GOING. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JUNE NORMALS FOR HIGHS
ON SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH ONE MORE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPS
AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS BACK INTO THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY...
WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
MAIN BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVE
DROPPING DOWN EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE THROUGH EASTERN ND AND MN
COULD INITIATE SOME SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN TIMING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH...WITH ECMWF FASTER. CANADIAN FAVORS SLOWER GFS
TIMING...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS SLOW...AND SEEMS A GOOD COMPROMISE. IN
EITHER CASE...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK...WITH DECENT SHOT AT LOWER 90S ALONG/WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 NEAR I-29 AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY. IF
FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH AS SLOW AS GFS INDICATES...SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE CWA COULD PUSH UPPER 80S-NEAR 90 AGAIN THURSDAY. THOUGH WITH
TENDENCY TOWARD FASTER TIMING AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THEM A LITTLE
COOLER THAN 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WED. SCT TSRA SHUD
REDEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS AFT 08Z AT KHON...AND TOWARD 11Z KFSD
WHICH COULD PRESENT THREAT FOR SOME UPPER END MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MNZ089-090-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR SDZ062-066-067-070-071.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR SDZ053>056-059>061-065-068-069.

     TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 3 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.

&&

 JH/RSR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
609 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-271200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
609 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

FLOODING...
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...THE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. THEREFORE BE AWARE OF URBAN FLOODING IN LOW OR
FLAT AREAS...AS WELL AS FLOODING IN RURAL LOW AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE
29 ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 11 PM

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.