Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCT TSTMS DVLPG AS EXPECTD OVER AREA THIS AFTN. CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTR NOT AS GREAT AS YESTY...WELL NOT AS LOCALIZED ANYWAY...AND
STORMS IN GNRL SHUDNT BE QUITE AS STG...BUT APPRNTLY COOLR TEMPS ALF
HAVE ALREADY LEAD TO SVRL HAIL REPORTS. THESE SHUD PERSIST INTO ERY
EVE THO THEY SHUD DISAPPR RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE NW...WHILE
PERSISTG TO ARND MIDNGT FAR SE. TEMPS TNGT LOOK CLOSE TO GUIDNCE.

SAT SHUD SEE A REPEAT PRBLY ON A LTL ERYR TIME SCALE AS WEAK FNTL
BOUNDRY MOVES SWD/SEWD OVER FCST AREA. THESE STORMS SHUD BE MORE
CONCNTRATD IN SERN HALF OF FCST AREA, IN ANY EVENT AM NOT GOING WITH
THE NO GNRL THUNDER AREA ON CURNT DAY 2 OUTLOOK...AND IN FACT WE MAY
BE DEALING AGN WITH SOME FAIRLY EASY HAILERS WITH COOL TEMPS ALF AND
HALF DECENT HEATG.

SUN AND SUN NGT SHUD SEE DRY WX...AND IN FACT AM INCLINES TO GO WITH
SLWR GFS AND KEEP THE DRY THRU MON DAYTIME...FOR NOW PLAN TO JUST
LEAVE IN A SLGT CHC SWRN CRNR FOR MON AFTN. EVEN THO NAM IS QUICKER
IN BRINGNG UPR SUPPRT IN...DO NOT THINK MOISTR WILL INCRS QUICKLY
ENUF TO GET MUCH TILL MON NGT.

TUE THRU FRI EXTENDED PD A CRAPSHOOT WITH UPPER RDG TRYING TO BUILD
NWD FROM SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE HARD TO TIME SHRTWVS
CLIMB OVER RDG AND FEED ON SLWLY INCRG MOISTR. WILL KEEP HALF DECENT
POPS FOR MON NGT THRU TUE NGT IN START OF WAS PATTRN...LEAVE WED DRY
WITH NOT TOO MUCH SUPPORT...AND GO WITH THE LOW CHC GUIDNCE POP
MENTNS FOR THU AND FRI. TEMPS MEANWHILE WILL BE TRYING TO WARM BUT
TILL WE CAN GET RDG TO BUILD MORE STGLY WE ARE STILL NOT GONNA SEE
THE LIKES OF 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...TO SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT VICINITY OF KSUX.
AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL WITH JUST ABOUT
EVERY THUNDERSTORM THRU EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LARGER HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1035 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-211200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1035 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

FLOODING...
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE LITTLE SIOUX
RIVER AROUND LINN GROVE IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO LAKE ANDES SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
349 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             3 ENE HORNICK           42.24N 96.04W
06/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       WOODBURY           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
457 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             4 ESE LETCHER           43.88N 98.07W
06/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       SANBORN            SD   PUBLIC

            IN ADDITION TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND REALLY HEAVY RAIN,
            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH TOOK SOME BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             3 ENE FULTON            43.74N 97.77W
06/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       HANSON             SD   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AND STRIPPED A LOT OF LEAVES OFF
            TREES.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
532 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             1 S ARLINGTON           44.35N 97.13W
06/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       KINGSBURY          SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             4 S VOLGA               44.27N 96.93W
06/20/2008  E0.75 INCH       BROOKINGS          SD   PUBLIC

&&

TRM

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