Alert archive / Arizona / Wind Advisories in 2008
Wind Advisory 22, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this wind advisory at Dec 12, 2008, 2:16 PM MST for 5 counties in Arizona. It took effect at Dec 13, 2008, 6:00 AM MST. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 12, 2008, 2:16 PM MST (21:16 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 13, 2008, 6:00 AM MST
- Expired
- Dec 14, 2008, 6:04 AM MST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Counties Apache County, AZ, Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1772 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 173 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 206 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 122116 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 216 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 AZZ004>018-038>040-130530- /O.NEW.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.081213T1800Z-081214T0400Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE... ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK... HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP... PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M....DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 216 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR STATE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.FLAGSTAFF. $$ 41
8 follow-up statements
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 130526 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1026 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 AZZ004>018-038>040-131430- /O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.081213T1700Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE... ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK... HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP... PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M....DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 1026 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MST SUNDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY MORNING... CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR STATE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 131303 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 603 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 AZZ004>018-038>040-132115- /O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.081213T1300Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE... ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK... HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP... PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M....DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 603 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR STATE THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SOME WIND GUSTS ALREADY RECORDED AS OF 6 AM MST INCLUDE... FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT .......... 36 MPH. DONEY PARK ................. 55 MPH. GREER ...................... 37 MPH. SHOW LOW ................... 48 MPH. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 131823 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1123 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WINDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ARIZONA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS ALREADY RECORDED AS OF 11 AM MST INCLUDE... TWO GUNS (ON I-40).......... 68 MPH METEOR CRATER............... 65 MPH WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT... 61 MPH FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT .......... 41 MPH. DONEY PARK ................. 55 MPH. SHOW LOW ................... 51 MPH. AZZ012>014-040-140200- /O.NEW.KFGZ.HW.W.0004.081213T1823Z-081214T0200Z/ /O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.081214T0200Z-081214T1100Z/ LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW... HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 1123 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 55 TO 65 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH OR GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$ AZZ004>011-015>018-038-039-140200- /O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER...HAPPY JACK... FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY... YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M. 1123 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. IN ADDITION...AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 131840 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1140 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WINDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ARIZONA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS ALREADY RECORDED AS OF 11 AM MST INCLUDE... TWO GUNS (ON I-40).......... 68 MPH. METEOR CRATER............... 65 MPH. WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT... 61 MPH. FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT .......... 41 MPH. DONEY PARK ................. 55 MPH. SHOW LOW ................... 51 MPH. AZZ012>014-040-140245- /O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-081214T0200Z/ /O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.081214T0200Z-081214T1100Z/ LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW... HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 1140 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MST SUNDAY... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 60 TO 60 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEBRIS BLOWN ONTO ROADWAYS. A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH OR GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$ AZZ004>011-015>018-038-039-140245- /O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER...HAPPY JACK... FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY... YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M. 1140 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. IN ADDITION...AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 140006 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 506 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE. ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...FROM THE AREA OF CAMERON EASTWARD TO WINSLOW AND SAINT JOHNS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS ALREADY RECORDED AS OF 3 PM MST INCLUDE... TWO GUNS (ON I-40).......... 68 MPH. METEOR CRATER............... 65 MPH. WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT... 61 MPH. FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT........... 41 MPH. DONEY PARK.................. 55 MPH. SHOW LOW ................... 51 MPH. AZZ012>014-040-140815- /O.CON.KFGZ.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-081214T0200Z/ /O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.081214T0200Z-081214T1100Z/ LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW... HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 506 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN WEAKEN TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH AFTER 7 PM MST. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEBRIS BLOWN ONTO ROADWAYS. A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH OR GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$ AZZ004>011-015>018-038-039-140815- /O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...HEBER...HAPPY JACK... FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY... YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M. 506 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS ON THEIR PROPERTY. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 140243 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 743 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT... .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING STRONG WINDS. SOME WIND GUSTS ALREADY RECORDED AS OF 3 PM MST INCLUDE... TWO GUNS (ON I-40).......... 68 MPH. METEOR CRATER............... 65 MPH. WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT... 61 MPH. FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT........... 41 MPH. DONEY PARK.................. 55 MPH. SHOW LOW ................... 51 MPH. AZZ004>018-038>040-141045- /O.CON.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO... WUPATKI N.M....TUBA CITY...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE... ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK... HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP... PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M....DILKON... KYKOTSMOVI 743 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL 4 AM MST SUNDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEBRIS BLOWN ONTO ROADWAYS. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 141039 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 339 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 AZZ004>010-038-039-141145- /O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1100Z/ KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...PAGE... LEES FERRY...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...SUPAI...NORTH RIM...VALLE... PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...KEAMS CANYON...KAIBITO... CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA...SEDONA...NAVAJO N.M. 339 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...STRONG AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING. $$ AZZ016-017-141700- /O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1700Z/ EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES... SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP 339 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF BLOWING PRECIPITATION...MAKING FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. FOR AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES FROM THE BLOWING OF SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING AND FROM SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY REACHED THE GROUND. SOME WIND GUSTS RECORDED SINCE MIDNIGHT INCLUDE... SHOW LOW ................... 46 MPH. ALPINE ..................... 42 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$ AZZ013-014-141700- /O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1700Z/ LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE... ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE 339 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING PRECIPITATION AND/OR DUST. SOME WIND GUSTS RECORDED SINCE MIDNIGHT INCLUDE... WINSLOW ................... 47 MPH. ST. JOHNS ................. 41 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$ AZZ011-012-015-018-040-141300- /O.EXT.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1300Z/ CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...WUPATKI N.M.... TUBA CITY...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...PAYSON... STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...DILKON...KYKOTSMOVI 339 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL 6 AM MST THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING PRECIPITATION AND/OR DUST. SOME WIND GUSTS RECORDED SINCE MIDNIGHT INCLUDE... FLAGSTAFF ................. 41 MPH. WINDOW ROCK................ 46 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. $$
000 WWUS75 KFGZ 141304 NPWFGZ URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 604 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 AZZ011-012-015-018-040-141415- /O.CAN.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1300Z/ CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...WUPATKI N.M.... TUBA CITY...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...PAYSON... STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...DILKON...KYKOTSMOVI 604 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH 8 AM...AND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES WHEN COUPLED WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. $$ AZZ013-014-016-017-141415- /O.CAN.KFGZ.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-081214T1700Z/ LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE... ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES... SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP 604 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH 8 AM...AND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES WHEN COUPLED WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Dec 12, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 12, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WINTER WEATHER WILL COVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. && .DISCUSSION... WE HAVE INCREASED THE OPAQUE SKY COVER TODAY THROUGH 06Z SAT PER SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND HELPING TO THICKEN TODAYS SKY COVER. THE WX ISSUES FOR SATURDAY ARE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY AND THEN THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG AND MOIST COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES AND THE REST OF A COLD FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION 415 AM....HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WELL HAVE ANOTHER QUIET DAY OF WEATHER BEFORE THINGS REALLY START TO RAMP UP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BREEZY TODAY AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH...AND WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. H7 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. RIGHT NOW THE THINKING HAS MUCH OF THE NORTHCOUNTRY UNDER A WIND ADVISORY...WITH ISOLATED SELECT SPOTS LIKE DONEY PARK POSSIBLY SEEING HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT NOT SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...WHERE LAPSE RATES REMAIN BELOW 6C/KM. SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. H7 FRONTOGENESIS VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GREAT OROGRAPHICS AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY DURING THIS PERIOD TO AROUND 2000 FEET OVER THE KAIBAB TO ABOUT 6500 FEET OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATION THROUGH THE -15C TO -20C LAYER ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT MICROPHYSICS. WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY...BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT THESE LOCATIONS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS A RESULT. AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES US...WE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THINGS START TO RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT FROM THIS POINT ON IN TIME WILL BE VERY COMPLICATED TO HASH OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO BE LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE CURRENT EUROPEAN RUN PUTS THE TROUGH WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH ACTUALLY BRINGS UP OUR SNOW LEVELS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AND THE ACCOMPANYING SNOW LEVELS. BOTH SOLUTIONS DO BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE WENT WITH A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...BUT IF THE GFS STARTS TO TREND TOWARDS THE EC...WHICH IT HAS DONE QUITE OFTEN THIS SEASON...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME RAPID ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR EVERYONE AT THIS TIME IS TO PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15G25KT FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SITES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 KFT MSL THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC TO 40-50KT AND SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30G40KT SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 KFT MSL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NORTHWEST AZ BY 18Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC.........DL AVIATION.......ONTON VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 12, 6:30 AM MST, 7 hours 46 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 630 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 AZZ004>018-037>040-130700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 630 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THIS PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION...STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. THE FIRST SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION...AS WELL AS SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOWFALL. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 3500-4000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ABOVE 5000 FEET. AFTER A PAUSE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A MUCH STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A DEEP MOISTURE TAP...AND WILL HAVE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. THE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM WILL BE QUITE LONG...AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PRECISELY FORECAST THE EXACT TRACK...PRECIPITATION AMOUNT...AND SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM. HOWEVER...PEOPLE LIVING AND TRAVELING IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.