Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 012137
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2008

AZC007-012145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080701T2145Z/
GILA AZ-
235 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...

AT 233 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 
MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF YOUNG NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...MOVING 
SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH...AFFECTING MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

LAT...LON 3379 11102 3396 11116 3399 11096 3388 11087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 063DEG 7KT 3388 11103

$$
TC

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 012142
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
241 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2008

AZC007-012151-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080701T2145Z/
GILA AZ-
241 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GILA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 245 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE STORM 15 SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF 
YOUNG IN GILA COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THIS STORM HAS 
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NO LONGER POSING A SEVERE WEATHER 
THREAT. 

LAT...LON 3379 11102 3396 11116 3399 11096 3388 11087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 063DEG 7KT 3387 11104

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUL 01 2008

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WEEK BRINGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
ONSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO TO PUSH INTO AZ.

AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NWRN AZ LATER TODAY SPREADING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THESE
LOCATIONS. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD SO THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE FEWER SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS EACH DAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...FIRST ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THEN DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE STATE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 15
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOONS...EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DJO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE JUL 1 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-020700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST TUE JUL 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOISTURE HAS INCREASED TODAY RESULTING IN GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING AND
THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...STORMS WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WESTWARD.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.