Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON. WESTERN ARIZONA IS LIKELY TO SEE DRYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME DRYING AND STABILIZING
FORCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FURTHER WEST...THOUGH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
FLAGSTAFF. THERE IS STILL WEAK STORM MOTION ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS...SO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE THE WEATHER THREAT OF FOCUS...THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR A SOMEWHAT MOISTER
AIR MASS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CONTINUATION
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...UNTIL 02Z...EXPECT SCATTERED
STORMS FROM FLAGSTAFF EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH AREAS OF
CEILINGS LOCALLY BELOW 3 KFT AGL. ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND AND MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MONSOON
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

PUBLIC.............KD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-230300-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1045 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
WEAK TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...LIKELY BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS AND GENERALLY SMALL HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
152 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             8 SW SHOW LOW           34.16N 110.14W
07/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAK