Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU JUL 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...EXTREMELY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH PRESCOTT AND PAYSON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCEEDINGLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
NORTHERN ARIZONA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.............MCCOLLUM
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KD

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1120 AM MST THU JUL 10 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-110015-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1120 AM MST THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. EXPECT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES. COMMUNITIES UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE WINSLOW...LEUPP...HOLBROOK
FLAGSTAFF...PRESCOTT...PAYSON AND SEDONA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SOUTH OF A PRESCOTT
TO PAYSON LINE...MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH WITH AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE MONSOON WILL BE IN FULL SWING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.