Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 092332
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
432 PM MST WED JUL 9 2008

AZC025-092342-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-080709T2330Z/
YAVAPAI AZ-
432 PM MST WED JUL 9 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI 
COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THIS STORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER 
THIS STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 3418 11327 3402 11317 3400 11320 3400 11321
      3400 11332 3401 11334 3415 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 061DEG 19KT 3405 11332

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
314 PM MST WED JUL 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN YAVAPAI
COUNTY...PRESENTING PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH OTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER A RETURN TO EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM ON THURSDAY
AS THE MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA...PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING TO THE AREA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DRYING OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT FAIR-WEATHER CLOUDS
NORTH OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z-03Z...MAINLY FROM I-40
SOUTHWARD...WITH BASES TYPICALLY AROUND 4-6KFT AGL. AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN AFTER 17Z
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOIST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN INCREASED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.............DDV
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KD

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1034 AM MST WED JUL 9 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-101745-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1034 AM MST WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT A DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OFF
OF THE RIM THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN..STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.