High Wind Watch 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
307 PM MST THU OCT 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG TO POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..THE WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SOME TIME. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS THIS WEEKEND NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE MARKEDLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. FOR THE EVENING HOURS THERE WILL BE A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 700 PM FOR SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 30 TO 39 MPH AND OR
GUST 40 MPH AND MORE...FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY SO THAT ANOTHER
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST FRIDAY MORNING TO 11
PM MST FRIDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY THE WIND ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM 7 AM MST FRIDAY
MORNING TO 900 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PICK UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THE WINDS ALOFT AROUND 10000 FEET...JUST NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70 TO 90 MPH. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BELLEMONT HAS
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE
MOUNTAINS...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST PLATEAUS
FROM 1100 PM MST FRIDAY EVENING TO 900 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING.
POTENTIALLY THE WINDS GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 55 TO 65 MPH FOR
AREAS NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY AND FOR PLACES ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WIND GUSTS MAY REACH AS
HIGH AS 60 TO 70 MPH WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND MT.
ELDEN

SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/UTAH BORDER.

A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS FROM 35
TO 40 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE TAF SITES AFTER
02Z...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL INCREASE ANOTHER 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SPEEDS 25 TO 35 KTS
COMMON. HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET MAY SEE GUSTS ABOVE 50 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ004>007-
009>017-039-040.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ008-
018-037-038.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006-007.

&&

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......MS

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
99/99/99

1030 AM MST THU OCT 9 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-100700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1030 AM MST THU OCT 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA. AS A
RESULT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COCONINO AND KAIBAB
PLATEAUS AS WELL AS GRAND CANYON COUNTRY FROM 1200 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 700 PM MST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 50 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY...AND ON SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS OF
35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 80 MPH.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY.