Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASING AS WELL. MOISTURE
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS ALOT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY THAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF COCONINO COUNTY. THIS IS EAST OF A SPINNING TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE EAST PACIFIC. LOOKING AT THE RADAR...A FEW ECHOS CAN
BE SEEN OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU EAST TO THE PAGE AREA...AND WEVE
ALREADY WITNESSED A LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER IN EAST CENTRAL APACHE
COUNTY NEAR WINDOW ROCK. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS
RATHER MOIST AND THE AREA LOOKS RIPE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WE HAVE MADE SOME POP/CLOUD/WEATHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GRIDS THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (245 AM MST)...EXPANSIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
WILL HAMPER CONVECTION AT FIRST TODAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS TOO
DEEP TO KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. ANY DYNAMICS
THAT WERE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TD DOLLY ARE FADING
FAST...AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMAINING
CIRCULATION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEW MEXICO. ONE LAST MCS NEAR
THE ARIZONA BORDER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD PUSH OUTFLOWS BACK
WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA FOR SOME MORE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...BUT THIS
IS A STRETCH. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...STREAMLINES SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DROPPING PW VALUES FROM THE RIM NORTHWARD. WE
HAVE DROPPED POPS AFTER SUNDAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LASTING INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. STREAMLINES SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE
AGAIN...AND MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER...A COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL KEEP US AT MODERATE
MONSOON LEVELS. SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING BTWN 18-20Z. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BTWN 03Z-06Z WITH
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A DRIER
AIRMASS OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PUBLIC.............42
AVIATION/FIRE WX...DB

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-270400-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1005 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY
OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
THERE IS A SECONDARY THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE AREAL FOCUS
BEING ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE DAY-
TO-DAY DECREASES IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.