Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 032204
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
258 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZC017-032330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080803T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVAJO AZ-
258 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 254 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING JUST SOUTH OF THE 
PINEDALE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINEDALE AND 
CLAY SPRINGS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF THE 
PINEDALE WASH AND THE DODSON WASH...AND COUNTRY ROADS. THE FLOOD 
WATERS MOVING DOWN DODSON WASH MAYBE AFFECTING SR 260 AS IT PASSES 
UNDER THE ROAD NEAR PINEDALE. 

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3426 11045 3436 11036 3439 11021 3421 11021
      3421 11039

$$
TC

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 032309
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
406 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZC017-032316-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080803T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVAJO AZ-
406 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NAVAJO COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PINEDALE AREA AND LOCATIONS JUST TO 
THE SOUTH OF PINDALE HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE STORM PRODUCING THE 
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA HAS MOVED ON TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS LONGER 
A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA. STREAMS AND WASHES IN 
THE AREA WILL SLOWLY GO BACK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. 

LAT...LON 3426 11045 3436 11036 3439 11021 3421 11021
      3421 11039

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON AUG 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION BEGAN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LEFT CLOUD-FREE
EARLIER TODAY. AT THIS POINT...NONE OF THE STORMS HAS BEEN
SEVERE...THOUGH THEY ARE PRODUCING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL /AS MUCH AS
1.3 INCHES STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION/.

AT 500 MB...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDES OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES FROM THE
MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER WESTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
POSITIONING PLACES NORTHERN ARIZONA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX. AND THIS IS JUST WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
TRANSITING NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM EAST TO WEST. AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING TO A CONSIDERABLE EXTENT
ON WHICH LOCATIONS CAN WARM UP MOST QUICKLY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
AREAS WHERE MORNING CLOUD COVER PREVENTS SURFACE HEATING OR
CLOUD-FREE AREAS WHERE INSOLATION IS FIRST PUT TO USE FOR
EVAPORATION OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION WILL LAG BEHIND IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z TUESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

PUBLIC.............HOWARD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...41

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
231 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZZ004>018-037>040-040415-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
231 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEST INTO NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THIS AREA MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY MAY CAUSE
A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.