Wind Chill Advisory 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WAS LOCATED NEAR
MARQUETTE MICHIGAN. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE PKD-BJI-BDE AREAS
WILL END THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED ENOUGH AND
WITH SNOW ENDING IN MOST AREAS VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED GREATLY
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS INDICATING 2SM TO 5SM AND MOST
GUSTS HAVE GONE UNDER 25 KTS. THUS SEE NO REAL REASON TO KEEP
BLIZZARD WARNING GOING THRU 12Z AND INSTEAD WILL END IT NOW AND
REPLACE WITH WIND CHILL WARNING. SOME AREAS MARGINAL FOR WARNING
CRITERIA (-40 OR LOWER) BUT AS TEMPS FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES AND
LIKELY THE WIND TO PICK UP A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK FEEL MOST AREAS
WILL STILL DROP TO -40 OR OR LOWER. IF NOT -40F THEN WIND CHILLS
CLOSE TO -35...WHICH IS COLD ENOUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
AFTER NOON AND WITH TEMPS RISING ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS
CLIMB WELL OUT OF ANY WARNING RANGE. WILL LET DAYSHIFT SEE ABOUT
HOW LONG THERE IS A NEED TO DO WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL
STAY NR 10 KTS INTO EARLY EVE AND IN FACT SOME SPOTS MAY DROP TO
-40 OR LOWER FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER. TO AVOID COMPLICATING MATTERS WILL JUST HAVE ONE HEADLINE
AT A TIME AND KEEP THE WARNING TIL 18Z FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY BE TRICKY WITH TEMPS AND SKY
COVER. COLD IR SATELLITE SHOT INDICATES MAIN CLEARING LINE FROM
BRANDON TO ROLLA-RUGBY ND THEN TO BISMARCK...ADVANCING EAST. FEEL
LIKE MOST ALL AREAS WILL SEE SOME SUN TODAY...BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WILL GET SOME THIN BROKEN STRATOCU AND SOME ICE CRYSTALS
SO THAT IT WILL APPEAR LESS SUNNY THAT IT REALLY IS. FOR
TONIGHT..DEGREE OF CLEARNESS AND WIND WILL BE A FACTOR IN HOW LOW
TEMP DROPS. SFC HIGH RIDGE FROM CALGARY TO MILES CITY MT ATTM WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL NOT GO
TOTALLY CALM. THIS AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW MID CLOUDS AROUND AS
SOME CLOUDS DROP SOUTH FROM SASK/NW MANITOBA MAY PREVENT A FREE
FALL IN TEMPS SO RASIED LOWS JUST A TAD TO MORE LOWER TO MID -20S
FOR MOST AREAS. ALSO CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...AN IMPULSE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST THRU THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES GIVING SOME WINTRY PCPN TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND VORT MAX WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO WRN ND AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUES NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BRING NRN EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON WEDNESDAY AS
NRN SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. WEAK LIFT IMPLIED AND ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN...SO MAINTAINED POPS
TUESDAY AND ADDED SOME TUES NIGHT FOR MN CWA NEAR WFO DLH BORDER.
MINOR EVENT FOR SURE...BUT SOME MID LEVEL LIFT/MOIST ADV WILL LEAD
TO SOME LIGHT -SN AT TIMES.

SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT WED WITH CLEARING MOVING IN AND A LITTLE
RESURGENCE IN COLD AIR.

.LONG TERM...
A PRETTY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...AS A STRONG
500 MB LOW DROPS INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST AND THEN DIVES INTO
CALIFORNIA WITH BROAD LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVES FROM THE
CALIFORNIA LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THRU THE THU-SAT PERIOD AND
MAINLY IMPACT CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION BUT NRN
FRINGES OF THESE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA GIVING SOME CLOUDS
AND SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP THU-THU NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS AND EVEN CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING A PRETTY POTENT WAVE
SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE
HAVE DRY WX ATTM. WILL AWAIT 12Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR ANY CHANGES
LATER TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

RIDDLE

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