Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 192201
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
500 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MNC077-192230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-080619T2230Z/
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
500 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY...

AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
NORTH OF LONG POINT...OR 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY AT 510 PM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4930 9496 4918 9480 4909 9476 4895 9475
      4922 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 317DEG 28KT 4910 9483

$$

ROGERS

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 192221
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
521 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MNC077-192231-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-080619T2230Z/
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
521 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE
WOODS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORM WAS NO LONGER SEVERE AND SO THE
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 4930 9496 4918 9480 4909 9476 4895 9475
      4922 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 317DEG 28KT 4898 9466

$$

ROGERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
FCST CHALLENGE IS TSTM CHANCES. FOR THIS AFTN/EVE...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS PRIMARY 500 MB LOW IN CNTRL CANADA IN NRN MANITOBA WITH 300
MB JET AND MAIN 500 MB VORTS TRAVELLING FROM CNTRL ALBERTA INTO
SASK AND MANITOBA. SOME CONVECTION FIRING IN THIS AREA PER
CANADIAN RADARS MOSTLY WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER...WITH CLOSEST
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. MAIN SHORT WAVE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO SRN MN AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA. STILL DEW PTS A BIT
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME (NR 80) SO CAPES
THIS AFTN RUNNING 500 TO LOCALLY 1200 J/KG THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE.
DESPITE LACK OF ANY REAL VORTS MOVING THRU...A FEW POCKETS OF
CU/AC IS STARTING TO GENERATE ISOLD RW/-TRW IN NW ND AND ALSO JUST
NORTH OF FLAG ISLAND WITH KMVX SHOWING ONE CELL NORTH OF GRAFTON
ND. SO ENOUGH THREAT FOR LOW POPS MOSTLY RRV AND NW MN THRU 02Z TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF PCPN.

AS IN PREV NIGHTS...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ON FRIDAY A STRONGER 500 MB VORT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CNTRL
ALBERTA INTO NW ONTARIO AND NE MN FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOLER POCKET OF
500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA BY 00Z SAT AND
WITH ENOUGH WARMING CAPE VALUES REACH 1000 J/KG RRV EASTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE LOW POP FOR AFTN/EVE TSRA THIS AREA FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY....SAME THREAT EXISTS...BUT ATTM WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
PER COORDINATION WITH DLH/MPX AND MAINTAIN DRY FCST. GFS HAS
CONTINUED 1000 J/KG CAPES IN RRV AND NW MN IN THE AFTN/EVE SO LOW
POP MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AS 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS. THUS CAPE PROG
VALUES FROM GFS ARE VERY LOW.

.LONG TERM MON-THU...
ALL THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A 500MB RIDGE OVER
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK TO EITHER ZONAL OR A TAD NORTHWEST. ONE
SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
THE MODELS AND HAVE INCREASED PCPN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MUCH MORE OF
A MUDDLED PATTERN THEREAFTER...AND BASICALLY STUCK WITH A LOW PCPN
CHANCE INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT AND DRY AFTER THAT. THE SFC REFLECTION FOR
THE PCPN CHANCES MON INTO TUE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THRU
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE (ONE IN CANADA
AND ONE FURTHER SOUTH). AS A RESULT...TEMPS DO LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ATTM. MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR VERY MUCH PCPN COVERAGE...SO
KEPT THE TAFS PRETTY LOW KEY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ALREADY AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE/GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
557 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-201100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
557 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE IF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP.

NG