Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 130000
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MNC113-119-125-130030-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-080613T0030Z/
RED LAKE MN-PENNINGTON MN-POLK MN-
700 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PENNINGTON...WESTERN POLK AND WESTERN RED LAKE
COUNTIES...

AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
WEST OF HUOT...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUOT BY 705 PM CDT...
  DOROTHY BY 710 PM CDT...
  WYLIE BY 715 PM CDT...
  ST. HILAIRE BY 725 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4793 9619 4792 9622 4761 9653 4767 9678
      4812 9650 4803 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 210DEG 29KT 4786 9648

$$

PJS/PR

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 130024
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MNC007-029-130045-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-080613T0045Z/
CLEARWATER MN-BELTRAMI MN-
722 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND NORTHEASTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES...

AT 717 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PONEMAH...OR 44 MILES NORTH OF BEMIDJI...MOVING TO THE 
NORTH AT 38 MPH. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY 
HAIL IS IN NORTHEASTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY MOVING NORTH AT 38 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT...
  8 MILES EAST OF THORHULT BY 730 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4837 9523 4836 9478 4772 9512 4776 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 194DEG 33KT 4814 9510

$$

JK/BH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
158 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
TEMPS. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
EXTREME NW ND. MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB OVERALL...BUT PREFER
THE COOLER GFS WHICH INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...AND THIS
SHOULD COINCIDE WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE MOISTURE
PROFILES...BUT WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20C 500MB
TEMPS)...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY ROTATE...WHICH MAY ADD TO A MORE
ORGANIZED THREAT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN POOL BEFORE CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE REACHED. WE WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH 03Z.

ON FRI...THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH VERY LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS AROUND 60. INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH LI/S TO
-1C AND MAYBE CAPE TO AROUND 400 J/KG. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT
THOUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THUNDER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

ON SAT/SUN...THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDER IS
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY ON SAT...WITH CAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY IS ALSO PROGGED BY SAT AFTERNOON...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTH...AND LIKELY AID MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGHOUT AND TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAIN IDEA IS FOR A BRIEF RIDGE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST WED. MODELS DIFFER WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES TO
BREAK DOWN THIS FEATURE. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TSRA POTENTIAL...WHICH IS PRESENT
FOR ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR WITH CU AND ISOLD-SCT TSRA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 15-25KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. THERE IS A RATHER GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR
CLOUD HEIGHTS BY MORNING (BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
509 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131015-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
509 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

AN UPPER LOWOVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  THE MAIN
THREAT TIME IS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RIVERS WILL REMAIN
HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT RAINS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
608 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             CLIMAX                  47.61N 96.81W
06/12/2008  E0.88 INCH       POLK               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM     HAIL             6 E BEMIDJI             47.48N 94.75W
06/12/2008  E1.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FOR ABOUT 4 MINUTES UNTIL 604 PM
            CDT.

&&

PROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
613 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             6 NW PERHAM             46.66N 95.66W
06/12/2008  E0.88 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PROGERS