Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 110921
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
421 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

NDC073-081-110931-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-080611T0945Z/
RANSOM ND-SARGENT ND-
421 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN RANSOM AND SARGENT 
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 418 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR GWINNER...OR 48 MILES SOUTH OF 
VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH.  THIS THUNDERSTORM 
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH WINDS ONLY NEAR 25 MPH REPORTED AT 
GWINNER AS IT PASSED THROUGH.  

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4621 9802 4622 9802 4627 9802 4651 9741
      4626 9729 4606 9802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 244DEG 25KT 4625 9775

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...
FCST CHALLENGE IS TSTM POTENTIAL AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY.
DYNAMIC SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING AS 50-60 KT 850 MB JET PLOWS
NORTH INTO ERN SD THEN TURNS NORTHWEST INTO SCNTRL ND. EARLIER MCS
WHICH FORMED IN NW SD MOVING ENE THRU SCNTRL INTO SE ND ATTM WITH
MARGINAL SVR STORMS ALONG SD/ND BORDER ON SOUTH EDGE OF STRATIFORM
RAIN SHIELD ALONG INTERSTATE 94 FROM BISMARCK TO FARGO. RECENT 41
MPH GUST AT ELLENDALE AT 215 AM AND JAMESTOWN NORTH IN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN PICKING UP NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS.

BUT NOW SEEING NEW ELEVATED CELLS FORMING FROM ABERDEEN SOUTHWARD
INTO SCNTRL SD AND THIS AREA IS PROGGED BY SPC AND HIT ON BY NEW
06Z NAM AS TAKING OVER AND BECOMING THE DOMINATE TSTM/MCS AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO SRN MN. ND PCPN ARE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST BUT IT WILL RUN INTO DRIER AIR SO
IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A BIT THIS MORNING BUT STILL GOT 50+KTS AT
850 MB PLOWING INTO ERN ND THIS MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL 850 MB
MOISTURE. SO LIKELY SEE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA MOVE THRU MOST OF ERN
ND THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY AND THEN INTO NW MN MIDDAY-AFTN.

QUESTION LATER THIS AFTN/EVE IS ANY SEVERE TSTM THREAT. SFC LOW IN
SCNTRL SD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NE SD AND CNTRL MN THIS EVE.
SOME MODELS WANT TO DRAG SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO
SE/ECNTRL ND AND SPREAD -1 TO -3C SHOWALTERS UP IN THE CNTRL RED
RIVER VALLEY AND WCNTRL/NW MN AT 00Z THU. SO THREAT FOR THUNDER
WOULD INCREASE LATE TODAY/THIS EVE IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN AND SOME SVR
CELLS MAY FORM. AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK MAINLY FAR-PKD SOUTHWARD.
LIFT STRONGLY AIDED BY NOSE OF 100 KT 300 MB JET MAX PROGGED TO BE
OVER SE ND 00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. AS FOR PCPN AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH
PREV SHIFT AND NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH REQUIRED BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO STILL VERY LIKELY BUT
OVER A 12-24 HOUR PD. THUS NET EFFECT WILL BE TO RAISE RIVERS A
BIT MORE AND PROLONG THE FLOOD CREST ALONG SOME RIVERS IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY.

AFTER THIS JET MAX MOVES THRU...DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN SQUASHING ANY PCPN AND WILL TAPPER OFF PCPN AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LIKELY AREA OF CLEARING MOVES IN
AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST. THEN ON THURSDAY...AS UPR LOW MOVES
TOWARD NW ND OR SE SASK...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST INTO ERN
ND/NW MN 18Z-00Z PD THU AFTN/EVE. THIS ALONG WITH SOME HEATING
EXPECTED IN DRY SLOT THURSDAY AND STILL SOME MOISTURE SHOULD AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

UPR LOW WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY
WITH FCST AREA ON SRN EDGE OF WRAPAROUND CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. ALL THIS COVERED WELL
BY PREV FCST SO LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS SATURDAY AS UPR LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD NW ONTARIO. THREAT FOR SHOWERS MUCH LESS SATURDAY
THAN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL PRETTY COOL ALOFT WITH -18 TO -20C
POCKET AT 500 MB. SO SOME AFTN CU WITH SPOTTY AFTN SHOWERS PSBL.
00Z GFS HAS PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU SUNDAY WITH MORE
PCPN BUT THIS IS STRONGER THAN PAST RUNS AND NOT GREATLY SUPPORTED
BY OTHER MODELS. PREV FCST HAD LOW POPS IN AND WILL LEAVE. COORD
WITH BIS AND ABR FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO REMOVE POPS/WX AS
HIGH MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY TRICKY FCST TODAY REGARDING HOW FAST MVFR CIGS ADVANCE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL LIKE IT WILL TAKE TIL 16Z-18Z FOR
GFK-TVF-BJI AREAS AS THESE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EASTERLY FLOW THE LONGEST. SOME CHANCE OF IFR CIGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE FRONT SWINGS THRU AND WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DRY SLOT
MOVES IN. LOOKS WET MOST OF THE DAY WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS TO 25-30
KTS MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
659 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 OR MORE INCHES. IF THIS DOES
FALL IT WILL INCREASE RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DTR