Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN US AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER SK WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MON
AND TUE. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY AND
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WED.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SK AND WAS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. ALSO SOME RIDGE BUILDING WAS OCCURRING OVER
ID...WA AND WESTERN MT. MODELS STILL FORECASTING UPPER RIDGE OVER WY
AND UPPER LOW OVER SK TO MOVE IN TANDEM INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE AREAS SOUTH SHOULD BE CAPPED.

NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUNCH INTO SOUTHEAST ND
THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 18Z SUN. LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE OVER EASTERN ND WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY 18Z AND
INTO WI AND SOUTHERN MN BY 00Z MON. RADAR SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST GRAND FORKS AND SOUTHERN NELSON
COUNTIES. ALSO ISOLATED THUNDER OVER NORTHERN RAMSEY COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER ROSEAU AND LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTIES AND SOUTH OF FAR. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 35
KNOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO MN LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

MON AND TUE SHOULD BE QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OPERATIONAL GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE ON
WED HOWEVER BECOME NEARLY OUT OF PHASE ON THU. NEXT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IS EXPECTED WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WERE GENERALLY 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAY
FALL TO MVFR CATEGORY IN TSRA. COULD HAVE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND FROM UPPER LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
700 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 3 PM UNTIL 9 PM OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
PRODUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES