Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 312019
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

MNC113-119-125-312030-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080531T2030Z/
RED LAKE MN-PENNINGTON MN-POLK MN-
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL PENNINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND CENTRAL
RED LAKE COUNTIES...

AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ERSKINE...OR 29 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

THIS STORM PRODUCED NICKEL HAIL IN PLUMMER AT 248 PM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MCINTOSH AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FOSSTON BY 330 PM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4758 9560 4751 9595 4790 9620 4798 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 333DEG 18KT 4772 9591

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTN WEATHER ABOUT AS EXPECTED...SFC LOW WHICH WAS BTWN HCO
AND YWG HAS MOVED TO JUST EAST OF GFK. AREA OF STRONGEST TSTMS
INTENSIFYING IN THIS AREA BTWN TVF AND GFK. AXIS OF HIGHER DEW PTS
(MID-UPR 50S) EXTEND IN BAND FROM TVF TO ADC-PKD SOUTHEAST. ALSO
AREA OF HIGHER DEW PTS IN THE LAKE TRAVERSE AREA UP TO NEAR FARGO
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS WEST OF THE MAIN WIND CONVERGENCE. SEE SWOMCD.
FZL AT 9800 FT OR SO AND BASED ON RADAR INFO AND OTHER
INFO...WOULD THINK NEED A BIT OVER 20 KFT FOR 50-55DBZ FOR PENNY
HAIL OR MORE.

VORT MAX/SFC LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING.

ON SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL GO SOUTHWEST AROUND HUDSON BAY
SENDING A WEAK TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO ERN ND/NW MN SUNDAY MIDDAY-
AFTN REACHING NR A PKD-FAR LINE AT 00Z MON. DEW PTS ARE A BIT LESS
THAN TODAY BUT TEMPS A BIT WARMER...WITH MODELS INDICATING 500 TO
1000 J/KG AVBL AT PEAK HEATING FOR A FEW CELLS TO FIRE ALONG WIND
SHIFT LINE. COORD WITH DLH AND INSERTED A LOW POP FOR TSTMS SUN
AFTN TO ACCOUNT THIS FRONT (MAINLY GFK-BDE-BJI 18-21Z AND FAR-PKD
(21Z-00Z).

WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA AS
TROUGH HANGS UP OVER CNTRL ND INTO NE SD AND MOISTURE FROM NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...DIFFICULT FCST IN TERMS OF HOW PCPN AND STORM
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT. PER HPC DISCUSSION 12Z GFS IS OUTLIER IN
SHOWING STRONGER NRN LOW IN NE SD MONDAY AFTN AND MOVING IT EAST
QUITE FAST WITH HIGH BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN WAS FOR A BIT SLOWER SOLN AND
ALSO A BIT FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF PCPN MAX WITH HIGH PRESSURE
POSSIBLY KEEPING FAR NRN AREAS DRY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH IN
THE FAR SOUTH FOR LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN-MON NIGHT...WITH CHC
POPS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM... /WED THROUGH SAT/
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING LONG TERN STARTING IN A FAIRLY ZONAL
PATTERN AND AN ACTIVE WEEK IS EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
AMONGST FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CNTRL US AT THE SFC. EARLY IN THE PD...GFS IS SHOWING A SFC
HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THEREFORE DRY ON WED/THU. CANADIAN
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE ECMWF...THUS LEANING TOWARD THE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER SOLUTION AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NW MINNESOTA AND CLEAR
SKIES PROVIDING DECENT HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VFR CUMULUS DECK
SETTING UP OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER
MINNESOTA. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PASSING OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE/SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FERGUS
FALLS...DETROIT LAKES...AND PARK RAPIDS AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WORK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TG