Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
249 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY DUE TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TSTM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL
MAINTAINING THEIR TRENDS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THIS
DOES NOT LEND GREAT CONFIDENCE THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME THE
FORECAST GETS. AS FOR A MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL TRY TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE INHERITED FORECAST/GRIDS.

TONIGHT...FIRST BATCH OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THESE APPEAR TO BE
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KTS...SO THEY SHOULD CLEAR THE NORTHEAST FA
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON ZONE ISSUANCE. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST WAVES PASSAGE. MODELS DO SHOW
MORE PIECES OF VORTICITY ALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER JET (WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER). FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE...RUC SHOWS 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
FA AND ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES
ARE RANGING FROM -3 TO -6. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
CIN WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 80S. GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ARE STILL IN THE LOW
70S...THERE IS A WAYS TO GO YET. YESTERDAY CONVECTION STARTED
GETTING GOING AROUND 4 PM...WHICH COULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY.
SPC DID ADD THE NORTHEAST FA INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT THE COVERAGE AREA STILL LOOKS LOW SO WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED PCPN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG OR NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE UPPER JET MAY HELP MAINTAIN SOME
LIGHT PCPN AFTER DARK TOO. SFC BOUNDARY AT 19Z WAS ALONG A LINE
FROM KHCO TO JUST NORTH OF KBIS.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO WASH
OUT OR BECOME STATIONARY ALONG AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM THE ND/SD
BORDER INTO CENTRAL MN. SFC HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE FA ON TUE
...BUT AGAIN THERE IS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE UPPER JET. WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN THIS VICINITY...DID ADD SOME ISOLATED TSTMS TO
THE FORECAST FOR TUE AFTERNOON. STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED TSTMS TUE NIGHT. STAGNANT
SFC BOUNDARY STILL SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA. HOW THE LOW
LEVEL JET/850MB WARM ADVECTION SET UP ALONG OR SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THE
SOUTHERN FA WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED TSTMS.

WED/THU...TRYING TO NAIL DOWN WHAT HAPPENS BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST IS QUITE DIFFICULT. TYPICALLY THERE IS REMNANT TSTM
ACTIVITY INTO THE DAY (WED)...BUT THAT COULD BE EAST OF THE AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE IT FIRES TUE NIGHT. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF RECHARGE IN THIS TIME FRAME AND NOT CONSTANT PCPN
CHANCES. BUT SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS POINT...
WILL KEEP THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM FRI-MON...
MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH LONG RANGE MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF GREATER AMPLITUDE
HEADING INTO WEEKEND HOWEVER TIMING OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES
GREATLY SPACED ACROSS N CENTRAL US. STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH TIMING MAIN ISSUE. AS A RESULT TOUGH TO PIN POINT
INDIVIDUAL PCPN EVENTS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD LOOK TO BE
CONTINUING TREND OF AT OR A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD BASES PRIMARILY IN THE MID LEVELS (VFR AT 100-120K FT).
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
MAINLY OVER MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER STORMS COULD
APPROACH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VSBY BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
BJI/TVF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON/VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
641 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
758 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 SW SHOOKS             47.85N 94.47W
07/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   PUBLIC

&&

G2