Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 101326
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
826 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNC051-167-101400-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-080710T1400Z/
WILKIN MN-GRANT MN-
825 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN COUNTIES...

AT 823 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE STORM
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF NORCROSS...OR 27 MILES SOUTH OF FERGUS
FALLS...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 43 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT...
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARRETT BY 835 AM CDT...
  HOFFMAN BY 845 AM CDT...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4609 9624 4609 9579 4578 9578 4584 9621
      4605 9626 4604 9646 4612 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1325Z 298DEG 37KT 4588 9607

$$

VOELKER04

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 101344
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
844 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNC051-167-101354-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-080710T1400Z/
WILKIN MN-GRANT MN-
844 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN WILKIN
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 842 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOFFMAN...OR 35 MILES SOUTH
OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 43 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SEVERE. SO
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4609 9624 4609 9579 4578 9578 4584 9621
      4605 9626 4604 9646 4612 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 298DEG 37KT 4579 9582

$$

VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND TEMPERATURES. NAM GETS THE NOD IN THE EARLY GOING HANDLING
SURFACE FEATURES BEST THEN MODELS PRETTY CLOSE IN LATER PERIODS.

ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP GOING AS 850MB CONVERGENCE...
MOISTURE FLUX AND WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGHEST POPS VCNTY WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN FA WHERE ABOVE PARAMETERS STRONGEST MAINLY DURING
MORNING HOURS. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER TOWARDS MORNING. FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
CAPPING SETS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION SO
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD POPS EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SOLAR BY AFTERNOON AND PCPN SHIFTS EAST. WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING ALONG WITH MODEST MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
PROBLEM RECOVERING TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CONVECTION TONIGHT CONDITIONAL IF SIZABLE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. IF
SO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...CAPE...SHEAR AND MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER
HOWEVER COULD HAVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN PLACE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS. WITH
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX AND THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BE A WARM MUGGY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
RESIDUAL AM POPS AND PROGRESS OF FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRES. FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE NEAR SURFACE
LOW TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTH AND A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG COLD FRONT. COOLEST READING WILL RUN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
EAST STILL PRETTY WARM AS CFP ARRIVES LATE.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY AND MUCH COOLER WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
COLUMN COOLS ALTHOUGH WILL STILL BE COOL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
COLUMN WARMS IN RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR. MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT
GENERALLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
537 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
537 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS TO BEMIDJI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING MORE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VOELKER