Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN POTENTIAL...AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON SURFACE DETAILS
HOWEVER CLOSE WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES. WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

BAND OF SHRA/ELEVATED TSRA OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS PROPAGATING EAST
AHEAD OF SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INITIALLY CONVECTION LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT
OUT RUNS INSTABILITY AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW. 35KT
850MB LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER LIKELY TO KEEP THINGS GOING INTO THE
MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR RAINFALL
DURING DAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FA IN ZONE OF STRONGEST
WARM ADVECTION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND IN ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS TOO IN AGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS. WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST ALONG WITH
UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION HOWEVER SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL
OF HIGH QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED BY MODELS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR OTHER THAN
GENERAL THUNDER. FEEL BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WILL BE TO OUR
WEST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND
WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL TO HEAT OUT. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
MAKE IT INTO DVL BASIN DEPENDING IS THIS AREA CAN GET ANY HEATING.
OVERALL CURRENT POPS FIT PICTURE BUT WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH HALF WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. AS LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT FA SE
WHICH WILL BE LAST TO SEE ANY PCPN. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES PRETTY
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL.

WILL TIME POPS TO CORRESPOND WITH CFP THIS EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER LOW LEVEL RH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

REGION REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY HOWEVER DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT OR LOW LEVEL FORCING.
AS A RESULT WILL TRIM BACK ON POPS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER NE FA
CLOSER TO 850MB COLD POCKET.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW CROSSES FA WED
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING.

TIMING ISSUES COME UP WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK SO FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE LONGER RANGE AS IS.
&&

.AVIATION...
OVER ALL IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PCPN CHANCES EXPECT GENERAL VFR
CIGS AND VSBY. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF/ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
STRONGER SHOWERS/TSRA BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INSERT IN TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
644 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THIS AFTERNOON MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO VALLEY CITY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION OVER
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             DAVENPORT               46.71N 97.07W
07/07/2008  E1.00 INCH       CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MEWENS