Severe Thunderstorm Warning 380, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE U.S. DRIVING AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO THE SE U.S. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING SHRA/TSRA
TO THE CWA NEXT 12 HOURS AND TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA
INTO MON.  MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM...FIRST PERIOD...IS THREAT
FOR SHRA/TSRA AND THREAT FOR SEVERE. GIVEN THE FRONT...PROGGED
INSTABILITY OF 2000 J/KG CAPE...LIS TO -4...AND BETTER THAN NORMAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...30-35 KT WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS CENTRAL GA...THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER
THAN JUST THE NORMAL ISOLD DIURNAL PULSE VARIETY.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW/MID CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA LEFT THE AREA MORE STABLE THAN RECENTLY AND HAS SO FAR
LIMITED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND EQUALLY INTENSITY. CLOUDS BEGAN TO
BREAK OUT 17-18Z AND DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA BEGAN AT THAT TIME.
TWO AREAS OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NOTED...ONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN N
AL/N GA...THE FRONT OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BNA-GWO LINE AT
18Z...AND ANOTHER IN CENTRAL AL WHICH IS PUSHING INTO SC GA. THIS IS
WHERE THE MOST HEATING OCCURRED EARLIER. AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE
QUITE TROPICAL AND SATURATED AND SO FAR THIS HAS LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWED THE AIR MASS WAS ACTUALLY QUITE A
BIT MORE STABLE THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR EXISTS GIVEN THE BETTER THAN NORMAL DYNAMICS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND A SVR WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 01Z. STILL
THINKING THAT SEVERE WILL BE ISOLD OVERALL. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE 00Z ZONE INITIALIZATION TIME...BUT
WILL NEED TO HOLD ONTO AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW AFTER 06Z. SOME LOW POPS
WARRANTED ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA AFT 06Z AS FRONT DRIFTS INTO
THAT AREA. FOR MON...SOME MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
PART OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THAT AREA. UPPER SUPPORT TO
PUSH THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. THUS...AFT 00Z TUE...WILL
REMOVE POPS FROM THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

MAV MOS...AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...APPEARS TO BE WAY
TOO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. WARMER MET MOS APPEARS MORE
REASONABLE...SO HAVE DEFINITELY LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY UNIFORM AND MILD LOW TEMPS. FOR
MON...SUNSHINE NORTH WILL OFFSET COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER
SOUTH WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN THERE. TEMPS MON SHOULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
TEMPS...FEEL THAT MAV MOS WAY TOO COOL FOR MIN TEMPS TUE-WED AND
INCONSISTENT WITH GRIDDED MOS DATA.  HAVE WARMED ALL AREAS SEVERAL
DEGREES. JUST DO NOT SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 50S AROUND JULY 1ST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE A REPEAT OF LAST WEEKS
PATTERN WITH A UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE REGION
TUE-WED AS THE POLAR VORTEX ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ANOMALOUSLY DEEP FOR
SUMMER. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE EXTENDED. THE NE U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SE U.S. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SOUTH BETWEEN
THE SW U.S. UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.
THIS PUTS THE MID SOUTH AND SE STATES IN A VERY MOIST...TROPICAL
FLOW. SUPPORT IS BETTER THAN NORMAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE STOPPED AT
40 PERCENT POPS GIVEN DAY-TO-DAY UNCERTAINTY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET...STARTING IN CENTRAL AREAS THU...AND ALL
AREAS FRI-SUN. THE NEXT ADVERTISED FRONT AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
HELD UP WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...SO SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY WARM...MUGGY NIGHTS...BUT
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. AGAIN...MEX MOS MIN TEMPS TOO COOL DURING THE LATER PERIODS
GIVEN TROPICAL AIR MASS PROGGED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  86  63  87  62 /  50  10   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  85  65  86  65 /  50  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     64  80  58  82  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    66  85  60  86  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  88  66  91  66 /  60  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     67  85  63  85  64 /  50  10   0   0   0
MACON           72  87  65  91  64 /  60  10   0   0   0
ROME            66  86  61  86  61 /  30  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  85  61  86  60 /  50  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  88  69  90  68 /  60  30  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1115 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS
OVERHEAD.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MEANDERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INSTABILITIES WILL BE WEAK...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
537 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ020-030-292200-
537 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN POLK AND BARTOW COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON TO
TAYLORSVILLE...TO CEDARTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THIS
MAY CAUSE TREES AND POWER LINES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT
BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ015-292230-
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
IN LUMPKIN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NIMBLEWILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
NIMBLEWILL AND PORTER SPRINGS. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY
INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED
UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ108>110-292215-
546 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WILCOX...TELFAIR AND
DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABBEVILLE TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OWENSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WILCOX...TELFAIR AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE OWENSBORO...ROCHELLE...
BROWNING...ABBEVILLE...EASTMAN...MILAN AND CHAUNCEY. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ060-292230-
556 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER STANFORDVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PUTNAM COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE STANFORDVILLE...WILLARD...NONA...WARFIELD...EATONTON...
ROCKVILLE AND PHOENIX. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
558 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ041-292245-
558 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN HARALSON COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT/453 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FELTON TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TALLAPOOSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS HARALSON COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
TALLAPOOSA...FELTON...BUDAPEST...BUCHANAN...WACO...BREMEN AND
DRAKETOWN. THESE WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BLOW DOWN SMALL OR WEAK
TREES AND POSSIBLY SOME POWER LINES.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS UP TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF PENNIES...OR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
559 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GAZ084-292230-
559 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN
WILKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IRWINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 36 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WILKINSON COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE NICKLESVILLE...MCINTYRE...IRWINTON AND TOOMSBORO.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.