Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Atlanta, GA

000 
WWUS52 KFFC 101858
SVSFFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

GAC163-303-101945-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-080510T1945Z/
WASHINGTON GA-JEFFERSON GA-
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NORTH 
OF DAVISBORO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR GEORGIA.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

LAT...LON 3296 8292 3311 8292 3315 8288 3316 8270
      3312 8265 3312 8258 3317 8259 3317 8244
      3293 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 272DEG 20KT 3307 8261

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET MAY LOOKS TO ROAR TO LIFE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
AREA MAY BE UP FOR A RATHER PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
BEGINNING AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT ENDING UNTIL AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHEN A COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES EVERY THING OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR
A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ATLANTA TO ATHENS STALLS AND
IS MET BY SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ATLANTA AND MACON. AS THIS SETS UP OVER THE
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO
STEEPEN...ALLOWING CAPES TO REACH UP INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE.
ADD TO THIS THE 50 KTS OR SO OF WESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WE
SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...SO
THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE HIGH WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN TAKE HOLD.
IN ADDITION...ANYTIME A FRONT IS NEARBY...THE TORNADO THREAT MUST
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...HOWEVER THE BEST SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO
THE WEST UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SEVERE THREAT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION SUNDAY EVENING FROM THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD EVENT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM
THE WEST. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...A STRONG 140 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL COME AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
LOW...PUTTING NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE GENERATING A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS LEFT EXIT REGION...MOVING IT FROM
NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN CAPES EVEN AT 12Z OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND STORM MOTIONS
LIKELY AT OR BETTER THAN 50 KTS...A RATHER WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION...EFFECTIVELY CLEANING US OUT. AS A RESULT...MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE VERY NICE...WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE 40S AND
50S AND HIGHS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM WILL START OFF PLEASANT...AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND SUNDAYS SYSTEM KEEPS US DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A STRONG
500 LOW WILL BEGIN CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING US
UP IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW YET AGAIN. 00Z RUNS ARE TRACKING
ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GIVING US
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOME TIME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WEEK...WILL WARRANT MORE WATCHING AS IT GETS
CLOSER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL START OF BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION...BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

MG
&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSTORMS FROM CHEROKEE TO HALL TO WILKES COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...DEVELOPING ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY
AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. HOWEVER...KEEPING AN EYE ON
LAYER OF CLDS (1 TO 2 THSD FT) SPREADING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND CURRENTLY THINKING MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST SCT
DECK ATL METRO SITES...AND SCT TO BKN CSG AND MCN FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BEFORE LOWERING INTO LOW VFR TO MVFR RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
SW TO W WINDS 8 TO 12 KTS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  65  74  51  71 /  20  80  70  10   5
ATLANTA         84  66  75  50  70 /  30  70  60   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     80  60  64  45  66 /  20  90  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    83  63  71  48  72 /  20  80  70  10   5
COLUMBUS        87  69  80  54  78 /  20  60  50   5   5
GAINESVILLE     80  64  70  49  70 /  20  90  80  10  10
MACON           88  67  83  53  77 /  30  60  60   5   5
ROME            83  66  72  50  71 /  20  80  70  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  66  76  48  73 /  30  60  50   5   5
VIDALIA         90  68  84  55  78 /  20  50  60   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1134 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1134 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF A COLUMBUS...MACON...AUGUSTA LINE WILL
MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AT THE SAME
TIME A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BLUE RIDGE...
TO LAWRENCEVILLE...TO VIDALIA.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TONIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTH GEORGIA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. LIFTED INDICES FROM -3 TO -6...AND CAPES FROM 1500 TO
3000 ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE. ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

GAZ061-074-101845-
216 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM AROUND LINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LINTON...DEEPSTEP...WARTHEN AND
HAMBURG STATE PARK. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
233 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

GAZ070-071-081-082-101900-
233 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN CRAWFORD...
BIBB...MONROE AND LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM RUSSELLVILLE TO CULLODEN...MOVING EAST AT
24 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS CRAWFORD...BIBB...MONROE AND LAMAR COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
RUSSELLVILLE...BRENT...CULLODEN...MUSELLA...BOLINGBROKE...LIZELLA...
PAYNE AND MACON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.