Freeze Watch 7, NWS Atlanta, GA

Baldwin County, GA, Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Catoosa County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dade County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Greene County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Hall County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Harris County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Macon County, GA, Madison County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Murray County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Pike County, GA, Polk County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Towns County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Troup County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Union County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walker County, GA, Walton County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, White County, GA, Whitfield County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEEP POLAR
VORTEX/UPPER LOW NE U.S./SE CANADA TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. DEEP
NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY...BREEZY...AND COOL WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW FROM CANADA REINFORCE THE COOL...DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS DIVING SE FROM ALBERTA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A 1037MB CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLIDE SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER THE AREA BY EARLY WED...PROMISING
TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
LAST WINTER. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY WED
MORNING. AN AREA OF MID-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY PASS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE...OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL BE CLEAR. ALWAYS
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT NW FLOW -SHSN IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY AND WIND TRAJECTORY MORE NNW
INSTEAD OF NW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AND JUST INCLUDE SOME LOW CLOUDS
IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT.

MET/MAV/FWC MOS ALL VERY SIMILAR FIRST TWO PERIODS AND GENERALLY
WITHIN A DEG F OF EACH OTHER. MET MOS HAS HANDLED MAX TEMPS THE BEST
LAST FEW DAYS WITH MAV HAVING AN OVERALL WARM BIAS THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. FURTHER INTO THE SHORT TERM...MAV MOS SHOWS AN INCREASING
WARM BIAS CAUSED BY ITS TENDENCY TO LEAN TOWARD PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND
LIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL OUT TOO QUICKLY. DEFINITELY
PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER MET/FWC MOS FOR TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH...GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. NEAR 10KT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECTED AS
THE CANADIAN HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA. THUS...NO
CONCERN ABOUT FROST TUE MORNING. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
FREEZE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING AND EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WED MORNING AS 850 TEMPS PLUNGE TO NEAR -12C IN THE
FAR NORTH AND TO -6C IN THE FAR SOUTH. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...WHICH WILL BE UPGRADED TO
A FREEZE WARNING AS SOON AS POLICY PERMITS. A FEW UPPER TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH WIDESPREAD MID 20S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD BE THE FINAL FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
FALL SEASON FROM FFC. AFTN TEMPS WED WILL BE MILDER...BUT OWING TO
THE VERY COLD START...HIGHS SHOULD STILL ONLY REACH THE 50S MOST
AREAS. AGAIN...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS THROUGHOUT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU...THEN SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THAT HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE
FORECAST. THE FIRST DIFFERENCE COMES FRI AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DEEP AND MORE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX/UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
IN THE NE U.S...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL FLOW
EVOLVING...SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE MIDWEST...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES A RATHER ANOMALOUS DEEP
UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SE.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS TENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST TWO
RUNS...IT IS CLEARLY AN OUTLIER AND NOT SUPPORTED BY THE SREF OR THE
ECMWF. HPC SUPPORTING ECMWF SOLUTION AS WELL. THE PUSH OF
ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR INTO THE SE U.S. FOR FRI IS MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW...LIFTING THE COLD AIR MASS
NE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF
SOLUTION AND EXPECT ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THU-FRI...ONCE AGAIN REINFORCING THE COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
WILL UNDERCUT MEX HIGHS CONSIDERABLY FOR FRI AS A RESULT...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH HPC MAX/MIN TEMPS.

DIFFERENCES GROW EVEN GREATER INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES THE MIDWEST SYSTEM AND DIVES IT INTO THE SE...THEN UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES AS A MAJOR SYSTEM. WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW
SHOWING A SHORT WAVE...IT IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...HOLDING ONTO THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND CANADIAN SFC HIGH OVER THE SE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AND DISCARD THE GFS VERY WET
SOLUTION FOR SUN. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH HPC POPS FOR SUN. BY
MON...EVEN THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A SEWD MOVING...POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SE. LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...BUT
DYNAMICS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MON.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A QUICK RAIN SHOWER EVENT. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING...SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE -SHRA AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT INDICATED
BY THE GFS. BEYOND MON...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY HINT AT A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY THANKSGIVING...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE SW U.S...BUT A DEEP POLAR VORTEX REMAINING AND DEEPENING IN THE
NE U.S WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD...POLAR AIR DIVING SE INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND FUEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
PARTS OF THE CWA FELL BELOW 10 PERCENT SUN AFTN. SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRYING. RH VALUES DO NOT MEET CRITERIA
ANYWHERE TODAY...GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WHILE ISOLD GUSTS TO 25
MAY OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ATL...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT RFW IN MY OPINION. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
RH VALUES LOWER TUE AS A RESULT OF LOWER DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED
WINDY WITH DRYING FUELS. WILL ISSUE A RFW FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA TUE. BY WED...DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 50S WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RH LESS THAN 25
PERCENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLEAR CUT SITUATION...SO WILL ISSUE
A FWW FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  31  46  25  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         55  30  45  27  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     47  21  35  21  47 /   0   5   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    53  27  43  21  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  33  51  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     54  29  43  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MACON           61  33  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ROME            53  27  44  23  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  56  29  46  22  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         63  35  54  28  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLAYTON...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171115-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
610 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST
GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA TODAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE STATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
PATCHY FROST...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE
TO BARNESVILLE TO MONROE TO GAINESVILLE.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.