Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 190033
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
733 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXC137-271-463-190039-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-080819T0100Z/
EDWARDS TX-UVALDE TX-KINNEY TX-
734 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KINNEY...
NORTHWESTERN UVALDE AND SOUTH CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EDWARDS AND NORTHEASTERN KINNEY 
COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED RAPIDLY TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. AS A 
RESULT..THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER..RADAR IS INDICATING OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH 
WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MARCH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KINNEY COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 2940 10030 2973 10025 2979 10004 2973 10003
      2971 10004 2969 10003 2963 10002 2963 9990
      2944 9984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 348DEG 11KT 2959 10012

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.AVIATION...A DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TIL 06Z.
AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS RETURNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 10Z
LOCALLY LOWERING CIGS TO IFR. KDRT TERMINAL GENERALLY VFR BECOMING
AFTER 12Z MVFR CIGS FORMING BECOMING VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BIG UPPER LOW IS FINALLY DIGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HAS A PULLED UP COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER PLAYER IN THE CONVECTION
TODAY IS A SMALLER AND WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE GFS MAINLY SHOWS THIS LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE BELOW 500 MB. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SOUTH TEXAS
LOW IS HELPING TO ENHANCE RAINFALL MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NAM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE RAIN VERY WELL AT ALL
THIS MORNING AND DOES NOT EVEN CARRY A REFLECTION OF THE SOUTH
TEXAS LOW MOVING UP THE TEXAS COAST ON TUE-WED. THIS IS A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO THAN THE CURRENT GFS WHICH INITIALIZED VERY WELL THIS
MORNING AND TRACKS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOW UP THE COAST ON TUE
AND INTO EAST TX BY 12Z WED WHERE IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE GFS HAVING
INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION.

THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN BOTH TONIGHT AND TUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
TO THE NORTH AND THE SMALLER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST
ON TUE. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING OUT WEST IN
THE HILL COUNTRY AS A WEAK WAVE OVER W TX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...AND
LIKELY POPS FARTHER EAST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW
AS BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOMORROW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES AS THE WEAKER LOW FOCUSES RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAINS. POPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT OVER DRT...TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR EAST.

WILL SEE AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ON WED AS DEEPER WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND THICKER MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST.  AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NE INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY ON THU...IT WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE SE ZONES ON THU AND SPREAD A BIT FARTHER INLAND
ON FRI. SMALL POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MEAN RH
VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
WEST TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  91  72 /  70  60  40  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  85  70  92  68 /  70  70  50  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  90  72  93  73 /  30  30  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  86  70  91  73 /  50  60  40  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

03/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191045-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
350 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY...GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO EAGLE PASS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.