Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED WITH HEATING TODAY...WITH LITTLE-
TO-NO CAP REMAINING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND OVER
THE BURRO MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE EAST IN THE STEERING FLOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR
AREA IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OF THE SPC DAY1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
(ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE). RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND WILL
INTERACT WITH REMAINING GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE CARRIED SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL POOL ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD AS A 2ND UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
INTO NW MEXICO AND CUTS-OFF. AT SOME TIME BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
MONDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT OUT OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND WELL CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  81  61  81  59 /  50  50  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  82  61  80  54 /  40  50  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  90  64  79  62 /  20  10  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  86  62  80  58 /  50  40  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/01