Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 232042
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TXC463-232130-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-080823T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UVALDE TX-
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
UVALDE COUNTY...

AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE 
FLASH FLOODING MOVING NORTHWARD OVER UVALDE COUNTY.  RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS NEAR ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 
HOUR.   

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE POISED SOUTH OF UVALDE 
COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO UVALDE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
HOURS. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE LAGUNA...REAGAN WELLS...
MONTELL...GARNER STATE PARK AND CONCAN.

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. EVEN SUVS AND PICKUPS WILL
BE SWEPT AWAY BY AS LITTLE AS TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER. TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2963 10012 2960 9943 2912 9945 2918 10003

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1213 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.AVIATION...
A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S CENTRAL TX
DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT
TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING OVER S CENTRAL
TX AND THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CONDITIONS GENERALLY MVFR BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
CIGS LIFT WITH HEATING. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE IFR IN
AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA. LESS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
HOWEVER MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN SHIELD OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY IS DWINDLING WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS MOVES UP THE RIO GRANDE COUNTIES
INTO MAVERICK, DIMMIT AND ZAVALA. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. TROPICAL AIR OVER THE RIO GRANDE REGION
WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A GOOD
DISTRIBUTION OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS HAS FALLEN WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS
TO BIG WELLS LINE. CREEKS IN THAT AREA HAVE RESPONDED BUT NO
FLOODING. CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY LIKE YESTERDAY WITH NEAR
CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MIXED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
A ROCKSPRINGS TO PEARSALL LINE...DECREASING TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS YOU GO EAST OF I-35.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANCES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM THE
LAKE AMISTAD AND DEL RIO AREA TO SAN ANTONIO TO THE BEEVILLE AREA.
THIS CAUSED BY SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
WEST OF THE BIG BEND INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST (PWS 1.9 TO 2.2 INCHES) AIRMASS.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEST AND CENTRAL DUE TO BEST
INFLOW THERE TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH
(2 TO 4 INCHES) DUE TO ONLY OCCASIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. FLOODING TYPE WILL MOSTLY BE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM, HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FLASH FLOODING. DAY SHIFT
WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.

FOR SUNDAY, UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE WEST UNDERNEATH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND TROPICAL
STORM FAY MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AIRMASS DRIES
OUT SOME AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTIONS INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MAV/MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, EXCEPT WENT
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR HIGHS TODAY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
CUERO TO SAN MARCOS TO LLANO LINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  94  74  99  74 /  20  30  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  92  74  96  74 /  50  30  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  96  74 /  20  40  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

06/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
447 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROCKSPRINGS...TO UVALDE...DOWN TO COTULLA. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF
3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING IN
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.