Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
307 PM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE BORDERLAND. ALOFT WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOISTURE INCREASES
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL STAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT PICTURE SHOWS A BROAD FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. TO OUR
WEST A BROAD TROUGH SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OUR AREA SITS
IN THE COMBINED FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THE RESULTING FLOW
IS FROM THE SE AT LOW LEVELS...SOUTHERLY AT MID-LEVELS AND SW
ALOFT. THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS ARE IMPORTING INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND N MEXICO. THE 12Z
EPZ SHOWED ALMOST A 40% INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS ALSO ON THE RISE. IN THE FLOW ALOFT THE MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACKING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN/EVE.
THUS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW STRONG LIFT...BUT DO INDICATE A
VEERING WITH HIGHT WIND PROFILE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR ALOFT. THUS
DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME
MODERATE HAIL WITH SOME STORMS. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO REPEAT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT INT TUESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO NUDGE OUR
DIRECTION (NW) WHILE THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHARPENS. THE
RESULTING FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW AND TAP DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICS. AT THIS POINT EXPECTED HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING. A SECOND BACKDOOR
FRONT FOR THE PERIOD IS PROGED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA THURSDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE AT INCREASED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FEATURE.

SATURDAY THE TROUGH/LOW TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND NEW MEXICO. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SWEEP THE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY
BETTER POPS EAST OF THE RIO...LESSER OR NONE WEST. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH NW FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ITS THIS SAME TROUGH THAT MAY KEEP FORMER HURRICANE IKE FROM
MOVING INTO W TEXAS #IF* IT CONTINUES ON IT CURRENT PROJECTED PATH
INTO TX.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/0000Z-09/0000Z
WK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS NM FROM W...WILL ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO AIRMASS OVER OUR FLYING AREA.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN ISOLD NIGHT-TIME STORMS THROUGH 09/04Z. LOOK FOR ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AGAIN MONDAY...MAINLY TIED TO AREA MOUNTAINS...AS WK RIDGE
ALFT BUILDS OVER FOUR CORNERS.  A FAST MOVING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDOWN.  LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN ISOLD -TSRA/MVFR CIGS/
IFR VSBYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CIRCULATION AROUND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
COAST FOR A SUSTAINED INPUT OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FIRE ZONES MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIME STORMS
IS LIKELY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
ONE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THOSE TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 65  88  66  87  66 /  40  20  30  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        60  86  60  84  62 /  50  20  40  30  20
LAS CRUCES              62  87  65  85  63 /  40  20  30  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              61  87  63  84  63 /  40  20  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              47  70  46  65  45 /  40  30  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  90  59  85  62 /  30  20  30  20  20
SILVER CITY             56  83  56  77  54 /  30  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  60  90  63  85  62 /  40  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               61  91  62  86  61 /  30  10  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/22  BIRD/TRIPOLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1115 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-081745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1115 AM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MOISTURE IS BACK OVER THE BORDERLAND. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WEST HAS PULLED
MOISTURE UP OUT OF MEXICO OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING...LOW-LEVEL
LIFT AND CONVERGENCE OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...AND A SET OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT AND SPEED SHEAR ALOFT MAY STRENGTHEN STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MOST
LIKELY RESULT.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THESE DAYS WITH MODERATE
SIZED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MOISTURE LEVELS RISE FURTHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH DAY. THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE OR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT.

BIRD

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