Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
309 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE MOISTURE LEVELS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL WORK WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. TOMORROW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MOST OR ALL STORM
ACTIVITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION TO AGAIN INCREASE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...THIS SYSTEM IS WORKING
EFFICIENTLY WITH OROGRAPHIC AND THERMAL LIFTING AT LOW LEVELS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA HIGH COUNTRY AND
THE BLACK RANGE. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT TO WORK SE INTO THE HILLS
AND LOWLANDS OF LUNA...DONA ANA...OTERO...EL PASO...AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PROG
MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ALREADY GOT A STRONG STORM
RESULTING IN A REPORT OF 1/2 HAIL OVER SAN LORENZO.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO OUT OF THE SW. THIS WILL HELP TO BOTH DRY OUT AND WARM UP
THE ATMOSPHERE. LOWLAND TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED FOR
THOSE THREE DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH RETREATS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER SOUTHERN AZ. RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL TO STEER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION LOW AND MID LEVEL SE-E FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THUS EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND AREAL COVERAGE BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 21/0000Z - 22/0000Z
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...MOST EASILY ANALYZED UP AROUND 300 MB
OR SO...WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  AS
OF 20Z... ALREADY SEEING RAPID CONVECTIVE GROWTH OVER THE GILA.  12Z
NAM AND U OF AZ WRF SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE DESERTS THIS EVENING.  12Z RAOB INDICATES MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER EPZ... AND GPS PWAT VALUES SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT
DRYING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THEN.  SO WHILE CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
VFR... EXPECT A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 21-03Z WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT THE LOWLANDS.  DMN/TCS WOULD BE EARLIEST...LRU/ELP LATER.
DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER DISTURBANCE HIGH ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NM THROUGH THIS
EVENING... ALREADY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TSRA OVER AN ALREADY
SATURATED GILA NATL FOREST.  MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST STORMS
WILL LIKELY SURVIVE INTO THE DESERT LOWLANDS THIS EVENING... HELPED
ALONG BY UPPER FORCING.  DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MIN RH VALUES POSSIBLY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY FRI AFTERNOON.  BY THE WEEKEND...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR THE
LOWLANDS TO MOISTEN BACK UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  96  72  98  73 /  30  10  10  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        64  93  66  95  67 /  30  10  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              67  96  69  98  70 /  30  10  10  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  93  69  95  69 /  30  10  10  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  75  51  77  50 /  30  20  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  93  65  96  68 /  30  10  10  10   0
SILVER CITY             60  90  61  91  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEMING                  67  95  68  97  68 /  20  10  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               66  95  67  97  67 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/25 BIRD/HARDIMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1100 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-211715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1100 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GENERALLY STORM-FREE DAYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN THOSE DAYS AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW MEXICO. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE A BIT AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED OVER THE LOWLANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE OR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT.

BIRD

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