Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ON THE BROAD PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FOUR OR
FIVE DAYS. WE ACTUALLY HAVE TWO COMPETING FORCES HAVING AN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. FIRST ALOFT WE HAVE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE HIGH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SINKING AIR. BUT AT THE SURFACE
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE AREA. THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN JUST ABOUT ANY DIRECTION SO ALMOST
ANY WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ADD MOISTURE TO THE AREA. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION WITH THE HIGH ALOFT WE WILL HAVE
VERY LITTLE STEERING WINDS SO THE STORMS THAT DO POP UP WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING...AND IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. SO ILL WORD THE ZONES FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN TODAY AND IN THE LOWLANDS
TONIGHT...AND WE WILL SEE THAT PATTERN REPEAT INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER HIGH. THE ECMWF MOVES
THE HIGH OFF TOWARD NEVADA AND UTAH...WHILE THE GFS AND DGEX
SUPPRESS THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME SHORT WAVES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RIGHT
NOW THAT IS A LITTLE TO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER SO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
ALOFT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH MOVING OFF A BIT WELL
SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 10/0000Z - 11/0000Z
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS NEAR STORMS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOIST AIR TRAPPED UNDER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  95  73  96  72 /  30  20  30  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        64  91  65  91  68 /  30  20  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              69  94  69  96  69 /  30  20  30  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              66  93  67  92  68 /  30  30  30  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              48  72  50  72  52 /  30  30  40  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  92  67  93  66 /  40  30  30  20  20
SILVER CITY             58  83  59  88  59 /  40  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  66  92  67  92  67 /  40  30  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               66  91  67  97  65 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BRICE/PARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1127 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-101730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1127 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH IN AN HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIKE TODAY A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE OR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT