Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
156 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST UNSTABLE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY WITH HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTRY
AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO HAVE EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THAT IS
BRINGING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE REGION.

EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A VEERING PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR A
THE DEVELOPMENT A FEW STORMS THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA
WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE TIMING FOR THIS
EVENT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND TONIGHT
FOR THE LOWLANDS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA WILDERNESS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS.

FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY...THE HIGH THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST WILL
START BUILDING BACK OVER THE STATE. AND THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THAT WILL HAVE THE OVERALL EFFECT OF REDUCING THE
FREQUENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. VERY FEW IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DESERT LOWLANDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
GENERALLY SCT TS THROUGH 22/06Z...AS CONTD MOIST E-SELY FLOW AND
ANOTHER CDFNT MOVING IN FM NE ERLY THIS EVNG COMBINE TO GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION INTO NIGHT-TIME HRS. LOOK FOR ISOLD TSRA/MVFR
CONDTS OMTNS THROUGH 02Z...WITH SCT TSRA/MVFR AND ISOLD IMBEDDED
+RA/IFR CONDTS ACRS LOWLANDS THROUGH 06Z.  CIGS TO 060 AGL WITH MAX
TOPS 400 WITH STORMS.  SFC WNDS GNLY 080-150 10G20KT AND OCNL HIR AT
TIMES WEST SLOPES/PASSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM WEST BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES BACK OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS.  THIS WILL MEAN A WARMUP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 7 TO 10 DEGRES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...RESULTING FROM ADDED WARMING OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL MEAN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WITH
SOME STORMS.  LOOK FOR DECREASING OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWLAND EXPANSES NEXT WEEK.
GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
RECEIVING AFTERNOON WETTING RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  97  72 100  73 /  40  20  20  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        67  96  69  98  70 /  30  20  20  10  10
LAS CRUCES              68  97  70 100  71 /  40  20  20  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              66  96  68 100  69 /  30  20  20  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              53  73  48  76  49 /  40  30  30  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  93  65  97  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
SILVER CITY             57  88  56  91  57 /  30  10  10  10  10
DEMING                  62  97  64 100  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               62  98  64 101  65 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-221745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1139 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH LARGER HAIL AND
VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEY MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE OR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LUNDEEN