Red Flag Warning 7, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS
BLOWING DUST EXPECTED. AN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE PATTERN WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDING OCCURRING ALOFT AND A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE BREEZY TO LOW WINDY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAY TIME
HEATING AND MIXING...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER LOW ON THE WEST
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY WE
WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE WINDS WILL PASS OVER
DRY LAKE BEDS THAT MAY ENHANCE BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE EARLY
MONDAY AND GENERATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION. THE MODELS ARE NOT BRINGING A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SHOULD KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY
SPOTTY ACROSS THE AREA. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY COLD
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000 FEET AND POSSIBLE LOWER BY
MONDAY MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LIGHT. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY. A FLAT
RIDGE AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM
UP DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/12Z-16/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE
VICINITY OF LOCAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG EAST SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WILL REQUIRE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES EXCEPT ZONE 113. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  53  76  46  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        76  49  76  42  56 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              77  49  72  42  57 /   0   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              75  46  71  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              55  30  51  23  33 /   0   0   0  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   75  45  67  38  53 /   0   0   0  20  20
SILVER CITY             70  38  56  30  43 /   0   0  10  30  30
DEMING                  77  46  68  37  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
LORDSBURG               76  45  65  36  51 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>112.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ111>113.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
726 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-161330-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
726 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO LOW WINDY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS KEEP THE FIRE DANGER HIGH...THEREFORE A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE VALID FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM MAY GENERATE WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25
TO 35 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 5000 FEET
ON MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ICE PELLETS BEING PRODUCED. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS SPOTTY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.