Red Flag Warning 40, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WWUS84 KEPZ 261330
RFWEPZ

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
730 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS OF NEW MEXICO FOR THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

.DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING VERY DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL CREATE BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER RATINGS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT NIGHTTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE NEXT EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT POOR TONIGHT.

NMZ111>113-270200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0040.080526T1800Z-080527T0200Z/
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
730 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT...SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH...AND
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE COGNITIONS WILL
CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. PLEASE ADVISE THE
APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS RED
FLAG WARNING.

$$

BIRD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
328 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
GENERATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH EAST
OF THE AREA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND A FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS SHIFTS WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A VEERING PROFILE OVER THE REGION THAT WILL AID STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE DESERT LOWLANDS LIKELY TO SEE 100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME TURBULENCE VICINITY OF
AREA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT BE SUSTAINED LONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE 3 HOUR
REQUIREMENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF A
WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL RAISE HUMIDITIES AND GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE
EAST. DRY CONDITIONS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 92  63  94  63  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        89  57  91  58  92 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              92  59  94  60  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              90  57  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              68  43  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  57  92  58  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             82  50  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  91  57  94  58  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               89  57  93  58  95 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/04