Red Flag Warning 37, NWS El Paso, TX

000 
WWUS84 KEPZ 131303
RFWEPZ

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
703 AM MDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MDT TUESDAY MORNING TO 8
PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO WILDERNESS
AREAS...FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO/BOOTHEEL...SOUTH- CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO/TULAROSA BASIN...AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

.STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE
TROUGH EAST OF OUR AREA. THE STRENGTH OF RESULTING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...COMBINED WITH MIX-DOWN OF
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS TUESDAY.  SUSTAINED 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH
OR GREATER...VERY DRY AIR WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER...WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

NMZ111>113-TXZ055-056-140200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FW.W.0037.080513T1600Z-080514T0200Z/
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
703 AM MDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM
MDT TUESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.

SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...AND FIRE DANGERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME LEVELS. THIS RED FLAG WARNING IS FOR ALL ZONES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 110 (GILA WILDERNESS).

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

20 NOVLAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
218 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL EVEN BE CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN OF NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTER
TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS EVOLVING WITH MODELS SHOWING
RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. RATHER
STRONG/DEEP UPPER LOW FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS
ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF SYSTEM AND DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW INTO
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING GRADIENTS IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR CONTRIBUTING TO
ELEVATED 550 MB MIXING HEIGHTS. THUS MORE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFTING VIA DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND 100 KT UPPER JET. WHILE MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL BE LIMITED BY LANDWARD TRAJECTORIES...COOLING ALOFT AND
STRONG LIFT WILL INDUCE ISOLATED LOWLAND CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7500 FEET OVER SACS AND GILAS.

TEMPORARY DRYING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ADVECTION SPREADS OVER
REGION. HOWEVER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONG 150 KT
NORTHERLY JET STREAK OVER ROCKIES WILL DIG/AMPLIFY ANOTHER
VORTICITY CENTER SLOWLY INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RESULTANT UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. IN ADDITION THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A RATHER STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT CONCURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CWA WILL BE LOCATED IN
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH JET
DYNAMICS AND MORE VORTICITY ADVECTION PROVIDING STRONG DYNAMIC
LIFT...COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION EASTERLY
FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT COLDER BUT ALSO MORE MOIST
AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING ABOVE 30 F MOST AREAS. THESE
FACTORS WILL AGAIN BRING ISOLATED LOWLAND SHOWERS WITH SCATTED
ACTIVITY OVER SACS AND GILAS.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST FOR WEEKEND AS ECMWF KEEPS CUT OFF LOW
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH MOISTURE INFLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. IN CONTRAST THE GFS PLACES CWA IN
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER
DRY GFS SOLUTION.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z - 14/00Z...
VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING DUST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PD. SFC
AND UPR WINDS TO INCREASE AFT 18Z TO 23025G35KT 5SM BLDU AT SFC
AND 23035KT AT 700MB. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE MDT TO GREATER
MECHANICAL TURBC OVR NR MTNS ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INDUCING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN COLO AND EASTERN NMEX. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND
CONTINUE THE DOWN SLOPE DRYING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS RED FLAG
VERY LIKELY. ALSO TUESDAY WILL BE WATCHED FOR RED FLAG POTENTIAL AS
WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND
EASTWARD LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A SHOWER THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  86  55  75  54 /   0   0  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  84  51  66  52 /   0   0  10  20   0
LAS CRUCES              62  83  53  73  52 /   0   0  10  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  81  54  68  52 /   0   0  20  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  59  33  50  32 /   0   0  30  40  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   59  81  51  72  50 /   0  10  20  20   0
SILVER CITY             47  71  42  65  41 /   0  20  30  10   0
DEMING                  59  84  52  73  50 /   0  10  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               58  83  51  75  49 /   0  10  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

05 ROGASH/NOVLAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
628 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-131315-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
628 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS AND A
FEW AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.