Red Flag Warning 29, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
346 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN LESS WIND ON SATURDAY. A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL
BRING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS IS PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
SETTING UP A SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE UP AS PART OF A DRY
LINE BOUNDARY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE UNSTABLE...RESULTING IN A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY FOR ZONES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON THE POSITION OF THE DRY LINE WITHIN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY WITH LIMITED PRECIP
AMOUNTS PROJECTED. THE SHEAR STRUCTURE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST. BY LATE
TUESDAY A SURGE A MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FORECAST
AREA WIDE. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS
SPOTTY AND SMALL. HIGH BASED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
OUTFLOWS AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY
WEST FLOW WILL RETURN NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z - 03/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TURBULENCE VICINITY OF MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF ZONE 113 AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH MODEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE BY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL REMAIN SLIGHT WITH SPOTTY
DISTRIBUTION. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BUT CONVECTION MORE ELEVATED AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES
LESS LIKELY. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  50  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        76  47  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              79  47  80  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  47  76  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  27  53  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  44  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             68  37  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  76  44  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  44  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NMZ113.

TX...NONE.
&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
642 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-031245-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
642 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN BUT STILL
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BLOWING DUST AND DRY LIGHTNING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LUNDEEN