Red Flag Warning 17, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT TUE APR 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A NICE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUN. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO STRONG
WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
COMING WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WE SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROFS...ONE TO OUR EAST AND
ONE TO OUR WEST. THE TROF TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONGEST WIND CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE LEE SIDE TROF
HAS A LITTLE TROUBLE GETTING SET UP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THOSE PIECES OF THE WIND PUZZLE WERE TO COME TOGETHER A LITTLE
BETTER WE WOULD PROBABLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH
THINGS BEING A LITTLE OFF I HAVE LEFT THE WINDS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE CWA...BUT THE
CURRENT MODELS KEEP ALL THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA SO I HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH I WOULDNT
BE SURPRISED IF A SPRINKLE OR TWO WAS FELT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WESTERLY THAN
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH ISNT THE BEST FOR BLOWING DUST...BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. THE TROF
AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF AND AS A MATTER OF
FACT THE SURFACE LEE SIDE TROF GETS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY MORNING SO WE WILL SEE OUR
WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS THE TROF WILL HELP SWING SOME COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION SO HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RUN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP US SUNNY AND WARM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SUNNY WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH NO SIGNS OF A WIND MAKER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z-09/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A CALMER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW.
LOOKING AHEAD AT TOMORROW WE WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WHICH WILL HELP CREATE STRONG SURFACE WINDS. THE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RHS TO GIVE US RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE
FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE RH RECOVERY OVER NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE WINDY CONDITIONS. WE WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL REACH CRITICAL WEATHER
VALUES AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SO THAT WILL SLOW OUR
WINDS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE OUR VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  54  80  55  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        81  52  81  53  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              79  51  80  53  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  47  81  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  32  57  33  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   78  46  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             71  37  70  42  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  46  80  52  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  43  79  52  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

BRICE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
623 AM MDT TUE APR 8 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-091230-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
623 AM MDT TUE APR 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD
ALSO SEE A ROUND OF BLOWING DUST WHICH WOULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF LAS CRUCES TO THE ARIZONA
BORDER. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT THE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST. THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND CALMER WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.