Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
303 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND MONDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER
DRIER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN HAS EVOLVED AS EXPECTED. DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND IS
PHASING WITH WEAKER TROUGH OVER BAJA. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALSO
NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FINALLY A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE U.S. WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE
THERMAL HEAT LOW/TROUGH MERGES WITH BAROCLINIC LOW ENGENDERED BY
PACIFIC TROUGH. RESULTANT FLOW INCLUDES A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND THROUGH THE CWA WITH MOISTURE FLUX FROM BOTH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA FURTHER ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE INHIBITION.
THUS AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CAPES WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG.

ON MONDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH
WINDS ALOFT DEVELOPING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
CONSEQUENTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO THE CWA THOUGH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE
BELOW 500 MB. THUS COMBINATION OF LIFT...INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY
BUT STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CWA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN WEST COAST
RIDGE AND MEAN TROUGHING TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED
BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THUS EXPECT WARMER
WEATHER WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS OUTLOOKED FOR LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST
SOUTHEAST WIND TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS A RESULT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS KEEPING WILD
FORE DANGER AT LOW LEVELS. WARMER DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  65  90  67  92 /  70  50  30  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        81  58  86  58  89 /  70  40  40  20  10
LAS CRUCES              81  65  89  65  92 /  70  50  30  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              80  63  85  62  89 /  60  50  30  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              63  46  66  44  71 /  70  50  40  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  63  86  62  89 /  70  40  30  20  10
SILVER CITY             75  58  84  56  85 /  80  50  30  20  10
DEMING                  80  63  90  62  92 /  70  50  30  20  10
LORDSBURG               81  62  91  61  91 /  70  50  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1140 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-311745-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1140 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
OVER SOME LOCATIONS...BUT NOT ALL AREAS. DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS MAY BE
RUNNING FULL IN A SOME AREAS. PONDING OF WATER POSSIBLE IN POORLY
DRAINED AREAS AND ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON MONDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS THE
REGION. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WITH BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE OR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT.

GNL